After record earnings, what does history suggest about the weeks ahead for The Charles Schwab Corporation’s common stock, SCHW?[1]
The 14-day October 23–November 5 window begins today. All nine selected midterm-election windows from 1990–2022 finished higher, although broader histories include losses. That makes timing worth examining without assuming another gain.[3]
What the quarter established
Schwab’s October 15 release reported third-quarter revenue of $7.171 billion versus $6.135 billion a year earlier, up 17%. GAAP diluted EPS reached $1.62 versus $1.26; adjusted EPS was $1.69 versus $1.31, excluding $151 million of pre-tax transaction-related costs.[1]
Management credited deeper client engagement; asset management fees and trading revenue also rose. Core net new assets reached $190.4 billion, up 38%. September sweep cash increased $7.1 billion from June, reflecting long/short strategies and organic growth, partly offset by client allocation decisions. GAAP and adjusted expenses excluding interest each rose 9%.[1]
Schwab’s reported third-quarter net revenue increased
Three months ended September 30; company reported
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 6,135 | Three months ended September 30, 2025 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 7,171 | Three months ended September 30, 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 7.33%. Nine observations offer historical perspective, not proof that elections caused gains. The latest observation, October 22, cannot establish conditions at today’s entry.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +0.31% | +3.16% | -5.42% |
| 1994 | +6.53% | +16.79% | -0.39% |
| 1998 | +28.65% | +28.93% | -7.71% |
| 2002 | +4.19% | +6.22% | -3.97% |
| 2006 | +11.35% | +11.47% | -2.34% |
| 2010 | +7.33% | +9.00% | -1.00% |
| 2014 | +8.71% | +8.90% | -1.21% |
| 2018 | +6.15% | +6.60% | -5.68% |
| 2022 | +12.66% | +14.68% | -0.08% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 23–November 5, 2018 is useful because its 6.15% ending gain coexisted with a move 5.68% below the starting price. Those highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough drawdown, and provide no forecast or stop level.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +0.31% | +3.16% | -5.42% |
| 1994 | +6.53% | +16.79% | -0.39% |
| 1998 | +28.65% | +28.93% | -7.71% |
| 2002 | +4.19% | +6.22% | -3.97% |
| 2006 | +11.35% | +11.47% | -2.34% |
| 2010 | +7.33% | +9.00% | -1.00% |
| 2014 | +8.71% | +8.90% | -1.21% |
| 2018 | +6.15% | +6.60% | -5.68% |
| 2022 | +12.66% | +14.68% | -0.08% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading survives a different history: success rates were 70.0% in 2016–2025 and 65.0% in 2006–2025. Neither matches the small midterm sample’s perfect record. Each comparison reuses selected midterm observations, and the shorter history sits entirely within the longer, limiting independent confirmation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022) | 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 7.33% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 1.56% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 65.0% | 3.34% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
The next date and historical illustration
Schwab’s October 1 announcement scheduled an October 26 Texas Stock Exchange closing bell ceremony. That upcoming event supplies no evidence of future returns.[2]
Below, recorded prices end October 22, 2026. The engine’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s nine selected midterm years to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 23, 2026–January 14, 2027, separately from the 14-day study. It is not a prediction or price target. Inspect this same window’s outcomes and ranges in TradeWave before treating its favorable record as dependable.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Schwab Delivers Record Net New Assets & Earnings · 2026-10-15
- Schwab Initiates Secondary Listing on the Texas Stock Exchange · 2026-10-01
- TradeWave SCHW seasonal evidence · 2026-10-23