SPY investors face a timely question: how much comfort should favorable autumn history provide while they await fresh inflation evidence? September income and spending data arrive October 29.[4][3]
This October 23 edition precedes the October 24–December 2, 2026 window. All seven selected midterm windows from 1998–2022 finished higher, although the broader 2006–2025 record includes losses.[4]
The earnings benchmark
State Street’s October 12 analysis, using FactSet data through October 2, reported aggregate S&P 500 earnings surprises of 16.8% in Q1 and 26.0% in Q2. The median Q2 company beat by 5.8%, showing large constituents’ disproportionate influence.[1]
Its Q3 earnings-growth benchmark of 29.5% and revenue-growth benchmark of 12.3% were expectations, not reported results.[1]
BLS’s October 14 release put September CPI inflation at 3.7% annually. The monthly rise accelerated to 0.6% from August’s 0.4%; gasoline accounted for over half September’s increase.[2]
S&P 500 aggregate earnings beats widened
Reported first-half 2026 results versus consensus; State Street analysis of FactSet data as of October 2
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 16.8 | Q1 2026 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 26 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Seven favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record gives the timing question substance: the median full-window long result was 5.42%, before costs. Seven observations offer limited assurance. The latest trade observation, October 22, cannot establish conditions at the future entry.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +8.97% | +11.24% | -1.48% |
| 2002 | +6.53% | +8.70% | -1.54% |
| 2006 | +2.47% | +2.66% | -1.64% |
| 2010 | +3.25% | +3.58% | -1.21% |
| 2014 | +5.42% | +5.82% | -0.71% |
| 2018 | +5.27% | +5.99% | -2.06% |
| 2022 | +7.40% | +8.22% | -2.66% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
What investors endured
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its entire calendar year. October 24–December 2, 2022 is useful because its 7.4% ending gain coexisted with a move 2.66% below the starting price. Ending gains can conceal discomfort. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown, and set no forecast or stop.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +8.97% | +11.24% | -1.48% |
| 2002 | +6.53% | +8.70% | -1.54% |
| 2006 | +2.47% | +2.66% | -1.64% |
| 2010 | +3.25% | +3.58% | -1.21% |
| 2014 | +5.42% | +5.82% | -0.71% |
| 2018 | +5.27% | +5.99% | -2.06% |
| 2022 | +7.40% | +8.22% | -2.66% |
Looking across all years
Checking the same dates across all years tests how broadly the favorable reading holds. The median was 3.98% in 2016–2025 versus 3.01% in 2006–2025, where three windows lost. History remains favorable but less convincing further back, without establishing an election effect. These comparisons reuse 2018 and 2022; the longer also reuses 2006, 2010 and 2014, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.42% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 100.0% | 3.98% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 3.01% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What comes next
October 29 income and outlays and November 10 CPI will update the inflation picture; their outcomes remain unknown.[3][2]
Below, recorded SPY prices end October 22, 2026. The engine’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s seven selected midterm years for the next 60 weekdays, October 23–January 14, 2027, separate from the full study window. It illustrates historical shape, not future prices or a target. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect the range of outcomes.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Strong earnings raise the bar for S&P 500 · 2026-10-12
- CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - SEPTEMBER 2026 · 2026-10-14
- Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 · 2026-09-30
- TradeWave SPY seasonal evidence · 2026-10-23