Tesla shareholders face a practical question after Q3: can better battery supply support higher vehicle output while rising expenses weigh on profit?[1]
The seasonal window beginning October 23, 2026, and ending November 2 adds a timing question. Seven of eight observations from 2018–2025 finished higher, although longer history was less strong. How much confidence does that favorable record deserve?[3]
What constrained Q3
Tesla’s October 21 update reported September-quarter revenue of $28.046 billion versus $28.095 billion in Q3 2025. GAAP operating income fell to $718 million from $1.624 billion.[1]
Management attributed revenue pressure to lower energy revenue, partly reflecting tariff-related refunds, vehicle prices, regulatory credits and deliveries. Services growth, currency effects and ancillary automotive sales, primarily FSD subscriptions, provided offsets.[1]
Higher research, stock compensation, including the CEO award, and administrative expenses hurt operating income, alongside weaker credits and energy gross profit. Services profit, improved vehicle mix, lower restructuring expenses, ancillary sales and currency helped offset those pressures.[1]
Tesla’s quarterly revenue was roughly flat year over year
Reported total revenue, Q3 2025 and Q3 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 28,095 | Q3 2025 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 28,046 | Q3 2026 | reported |
A favorable seasonal record
TradeWave’s selected eight-window study supplies the historical perspective: its median full-window long result was 8.99%. That describes completed seasonal periods before trading costs, not an expected gain from today.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +17.77% | +18.72% | -2.86% |
| 2019 | +24.65% | +33.83% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | -4.78% | +2.35% | -9.87% |
| 2021 | +14.36% | +18.04% | -2.29% |
| 2022 | +1.77% | +12.38% | -0.59% |
| 2023 | +3.03% | +4.70% | -8.49% |
| 2024 | +13.66% | +28.03% | +0.00% |
| 2025 | +4.32% | +5.59% | -4.19% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal discomfort
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 23–November 2, 2023, is useful because its 3.03% ending gain coexisted with a move 8.49% below the starting price. These highs and lows reveal exposure inside the window; they establish neither their order nor a peak-to-trough drawdown.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | +17.77% | +18.72% | -2.86% |
| 2019 | +24.65% | +33.83% | +0.00% |
| 2020 | -4.78% | +2.35% | -9.87% |
| 2021 | +14.36% | +18.04% | -2.29% |
| 2022 | +1.77% | +12.38% | -0.59% |
| 2023 | +3.03% | +4.70% | -8.49% |
| 2024 | +13.66% | +28.03% | +0.00% |
| 2025 | +4.32% | +5.59% | -4.19% |
Looking further back
Checking other histories tests how broadly the finding holds. Across 2011–2025, the median was 3.03%, versus 8.99% in the selected study: still favorable, but less compelling. All eight selected observations recur there. The three selected midterm-election years, 2014, 2018 and 2022, also gained, but two overlap the primary study. That small, reused sample adds little independent confirmation or evidence of an election effect.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 8 consecutive historical windows (2018–2025) | 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 87.5% | 8.99% |
| 15 consecutive historical windows (2011–2025) | 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.03% |
| 3 selected midterm-election years (2014–2022) | 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 3.1% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Supply progress and historical shape
Tesla reported progress securing batteries, still a volume constraint, alongside record energy storage orders and backlog. Its captured outlook gives no numerical delivery or profit forecast; volumes depend on demand, supply readiness and customer-versus-fleet allocation.[1]
The price illustration below uses the selected 2018–2025 years. Recorded prices end October 22, 2026; they do not establish the window’s entry condition. The engine’s normalized seasonal overlay illustrates historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 23–January 14, 2027, separately from the 11-day study. It is no forecast or price target. Next, inspect TradeWave’s same-window outcomes across histories to judge their consistency.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
8 consecutive historical windows (2018–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Q3 2026 Update · 2026-10-21
- Proxy Statement for 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders · 2026-10-19
- TradeWave TSLA seasonal evidence · 2026-10-23