Amazon’s holiday preparations leave shareholders asking what they signal about profitable growth. Its October 20 announcement outlined plans for more than 300,000 U.S. holiday-season hires, rather than a completed hiring total.[2]
The October 29 results call precedes TradeWave’s November 17, 2026–July 19, 2027 window. All six selected midterm-year windows gained, although broader histories include losses. How much confidence does that favorable timing record deserve?[3][4]
July’s benchmarks for October’s results
Amazon’s July 30 release reported second-quarter sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%; AWS sales rose 37% to $42.2 billion.[1]
Its third-quarter forecasts, not results, were sales of $197.0–$202.0 billion, up 9%–12%, and operating income of $22.5–$26.5 billion versus $17.4 billion in third-quarter 2025. Excluding Prime Day in both years, forecast sales growth would be nearly 400 basis points higher; guidance included an approximately 80-basis-point currency headwind.[1]
The release also reported a trailing twelve-month free cash outflow of $7.6 billion, primarily from higher property and equipment purchases reflecting AI investment. Second-quarter net income included $53.4 billion of non-operating pre-tax income, primarily from Anthropic investments, distinguishing that contribution from operating performance.[1]
Amazon’s reported second-quarter sales
Net sales for quarters ended June 30
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 167.7 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 200.6 | Q2 2026 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record covers six midterm start years from 2002–2022. The median full-window long result was 46.9%. That is striking historical evidence, but six observations cannot establish a dependable election-cycle effect.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +57.58% | +82.11% | -17.80% |
| 2006 | +72.39% | +77.09% | -14.69% |
| 2010 | +37.71% | +37.92% | +0.00% |
| 2014 | +51.09% | +52.67% | -11.70% |
| 2018 | +29.90% | +34.62% | -13.57% |
| 2022 | +42.71% | +44.07% | -14.15% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Gains could include substantial declines
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. The latest selected example, November 17, 2022–July 19, 2023, illustrates the distinction: it ended up 42.71% but reached 14.15% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +57.58% | +82.11% | -17.80% |
| 2006 | +72.39% | +77.09% | -14.69% |
| 2010 | +37.71% | +37.92% | +0.00% |
| 2014 | +51.09% | +52.67% | -11.70% |
| 2018 | +29.90% | +34.62% | -13.57% |
| 2022 | +42.71% | +44.07% | -14.15% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms: success rates were 90.0% for start years 2016–2025 and 80.0% for 2006–2025. Both remain favorable, without the perfect record. The shorter comparison reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected year except 2002, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 46.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 28.02% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 28.02% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Results first, then November’s entry
October 29 brings the next business checkpoint. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its ranges.[3][4]
The following price illustration uses these same six selected years and the engine’s seasonal overlay for the next 60 weekdays, October 26, 2026–January 15, 2027, a separate horizon from the full window. Recorded prices end October 23, 2026, before November’s entry. The overlay illustrates historical shape, not future prices or an earnings prediction.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results · 2026-07-30
- Amazon Creates Over 300,000 New U.S. Jobs This Holiday Season with Increased Pay and Expanded Benefits · 2026-10-20
- Amazon.com to Webcast Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call · 2026-10-15
- TradeWave AMZN seasonal evidence · 2026-10-26