For investors in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), AMD’s forthcoming results raise a practical question: what will they reveal about chip demand before the fund’s seasonal window opens? AMD reports November 3 after market close, ahead of the November 10 entry.[3][4]
TradeWave’s six selected midterm-election windows from 2002–2022 all finished higher. That favorable record makes the approaching period worth examining, although broader histories include losses and six observations offer limited confidence.[4]
Reported demand, planned capacity
TSMC’s October 15 release reported revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, up 50.9% year over year; net income and EPS rose 68.7%. Management credited leading-edge demand and forecast fourth-quarter revenue of US$52.3–54.3 billion, supported partly by its 2-nanometer ramp.[1]
NVIDIA’s October 21 announcement identified capacity as a constraint and planned a 2.5x substrate-capacity increase over three years. That target is future capacity, not completed output.[2]
These announcements provide industry context, not verified SMH holdings or a forecast for fund returns. AMD’s notice supplies a reporting date, not results.[2][3]
TSMC’s reported third-quarter wafer revenue mix
Share of wafer revenue by process technology, third quarter 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-nanometer | 8 | Q3 2026 | reported |
| 3-nanometer | 33 | Q3 2026 | reported |
| 5-nanometer | 28 | Q3 2026 | reported |
| 7-nanometer | 10 | Q3 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 19.18% before trading costs. The prospective window runs November 10, 2026–May 15, 2027. Those historical gains cover complete windows, not returns available from today.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +23.24% | +34.78% | -11.42% |
| 2006 | +13.25% | +15.54% | -1.69% |
| 2010 | +19.04% | +21.76% | -3.66% |
| 2014 | +11.07% | +13.81% | -1.02% |
| 2018 | +21.71% | +34.74% | -9.91% |
| 2022 | +19.33% | +24.69% | -7.03% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning windows still fell
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. The latest selected example, November 10, 2022–May 15, 2023, illustrates the distinction: it finished up 19.33% but traded 7.03% below the starting price. Its highs and lows reveal the range endured, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +23.24% | +34.78% | -11.42% |
| 2006 | +13.25% | +15.54% | -1.69% |
| 2010 | +19.04% | +21.76% | -3.66% |
| 2014 | +11.07% | +13.81% | -1.02% |
| 2018 | +21.71% | +34.74% | -9.91% |
| 2022 | +19.33% | +24.69% | -7.03% |
Looking across all years
The broader histories check whether strength extends beyond selected midterms. Both remain favorable but include losses; the median falls from 20.52% across 2016–2025 to 11.3% across 2006–2025. The recent comparison reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer one reuses every selected year except 2002. With the recent set also inside the longer set, agreement offers limited independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 19.18% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 20.52% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 85.0% | 11.3% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before the window opens
Read AMD’s release when available, then inspect this same window’s outcomes across TradeWave histories. Recorded prices end October 23, 2026, so they cannot establish November’s entry conditions. The following chart uses this article’s six selected midterm years for the engine’s seasonal overlay over the next 60 weekdays, October 26, 2026–January 15, 2027. That shorter horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, earnings or a price target.[3][4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- TSMC Reports Third Quarter EPS of NT$29.43 · 2026-10-15
- NVIDIA and Supply Chain Partners Expand Capacity to Accelerate AI Infrastructure Buildout · 2026-10-21
- AMD to Report Fiscal Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-10-06
- TradeWave SMH seasonal evidence · 2026-10-26