For XLK investors, the question is whether earnings can keep pace with AI investment ambitions. Microsoft’s results, due after the close on October 28, offer a nearer look at that debate.[1][4]
XLK’s October 26, 2026–May 3, 2027 seasonal window begins today. All six selected midterm windows from 2002–2022 finished higher, although broader histories include losses. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable timing record?[5]
Investment plans meet earnings expectations
State Street’s October 6 outlook, reflecting September 28 views, favored technology on AI demand, adoption, monetization and earnings upgrades. Its cited consensus forecast for 2027 technology earnings growth rose from 27% in June to 40% in mid-September. These are forecasts. It also warned that higher yields, capital intensity and financing costs pressured valuations despite improving fundamentals.[1]
NVIDIA’s October 21 expansion plans included a $1.1 billion capacity reservation advance for U.S. testing facilities. Capacity and production dates remain prospective.[2]
Apple’s October 20 supplier announcement restated Broadcom’s $1.5 billion investment announced in July; it did not establish completed spending.[3]
Announced amounts tied to U.S. technology manufacturing
Company-stated amounts; neither bar represents completed spending
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA–KYEC advance | 1.1 | Announced 2026-10-21 | reported |
| Broadcom investment | 1.5 | Announced July 2026; restated 2026-10-20 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record gives XLK a favorable historical backdrop, with a 10.9% median full-window long result before costs. Six observations offer limited confidence, however, and cannot establish an election effect. The latest observation is October 23, so it does not establish conditions at today’s entry.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.99% | +22.76% | -7.20% |
| 2006 | +8.64% | +8.73% | -2.38% |
| 2010 | +10.71% | +12.16% | -2.06% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +16.67% | +17.94% | -15.08% |
| 2022 | +18.62% | +21.34% | -5.88% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal a difficult holding period
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 26, 2018–May 3, 2019 illustrates the distinction: XLK finished up 16.67% but reached 15.08% below its starting price. Those highs and lows do not reveal their order, a peak-to-trough loss, or a future trading path.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +10.99% | +22.76% | -7.20% |
| 2006 | +8.64% | +8.73% | -2.38% |
| 2010 | +10.71% | +12.16% | -2.06% |
| 2014 | +10.82% | +11.88% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +16.67% | +17.94% | -15.08% |
| 2022 | +18.62% | +21.34% | -5.88% |
Broader histories temper the perfect record
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond selected midterms. The 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 windows each had 80.0% profitable outcomes, supporting that reading with less consistency. The former reuses 2018 and 2022; the latter reuses every selected midterm except 2002. Their agreement is therefore not independent confirmation of the small primary sample.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.9% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.96% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.28% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
Microsoft’s fiscal 2027 first-quarter release is the next business checkpoint for the earnings question.[4]
In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its ranges. Below, recorded prices end October 23, 2026. The engine’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s six selected midterm years to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 26–January 15, 2027. That shorter horizon is separate from the full window, not a prediction or price target.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Sector Market Perspectives: Q4 2026 · 2026-10-06
- NVIDIA and Supply Chain Partners Expand Capacity to Accelerate AI Infrastructure Buildout · 2026-10-21
- Apple announces new American Manufacturing Program partners for iPhone Duo and iPhone 18 Pro · 2026-10-20
- Microsoft announces quarterly earnings release date · 2026-10-07
- TradeWave XLK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-26