Microsoft shareholders are waiting to see whether cloud growth can continue alongside the cost of expanding AI infrastructure. Today’s earnings report brings that question into focus.[2][3]
The October 27–November 9, 2026 seasonal window began yesterday. Microsoft shares gained in eight of nine selected midterm years spanning 1990–2022, although broader histories were less strong. How much confidence does that favorable timing deserve?[4]
Growth and its costs
Microsoft’s July 29 report covered the quarter ended June 30: revenue reached $90.0 billion, up 18% year over year; Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 43%.[1]
Microsoft Cloud revenue rose 27% to $59.3 billion, reflecting demand for Azure and Microsoft’s AI applications and services. Commercial remaining performance obligation rose 84% to $678 billion, but 25% excluding OpenAI. All sequential growth came from customers outside frontier model companies.[2]
Capital expenditures were $41 billion, including higher component prices. Company gross margin fell year over year to 67%. Management cited an Azure sales mix shift, AI infrastructure investment and greater product usage, partly offset by efficiency gains.[2]
Microsoft’s reported June-quarter segment revenue
Fiscal 2026 fourth quarter, ended June 30, 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity and Business Processes | 37.8 | FY2026 Q4 | reported |
| Intelligent Cloud | 39.3 | FY2026 Q4 | reported |
| More Personal Computing | 12.9 | FY2026 Q4 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 3.59%, before trading costs. That describes completed historical windows, not the return remaining today. Observations stop October 27, so they establish nothing about subsequent trading.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +3.59% | +6.38% | -0.82% |
| 1994 | +3.45% | +4.87% | -1.22% |
| 1998 | +4.98% | +5.63% | -0.65% |
| 2002 | +3.68% | +10.20% | -2.12% |
| 2006 | +3.25% | +3.74% | -0.07% |
| 2010 | +3.45% | +10.83% | -0.50% |
| 2014 | +6.49% | +7.06% | -0.31% |
| 2018 | +5.51% | +8.08% | -3.60% |
| 2022 | -0.99% | +4.34% | -5.87% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
The finish hides the strain
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. The latest selected example, October 27–November 9, 2022, illustrates the difference: shares finished down 0.99% but reached 5.87% below the starting price. Its highs and lows do not establish their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | +3.59% | +6.38% | -0.82% |
| 1994 | +3.45% | +4.87% | -1.22% |
| 1998 | +4.98% | +5.63% | -0.65% |
| 2002 | +3.68% | +10.20% | -2.12% |
| 2006 | +3.25% | +3.74% | -0.07% |
| 2010 | +3.45% | +10.83% | -0.50% |
| 2014 | +6.49% | +7.06% | -0.31% |
| 2018 | +5.51% | +8.08% | -3.60% |
| 2022 | -0.99% | +4.34% | -5.87% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms. Median results were 0.83% for 2016–2025 and 1.18% for 2006–2025, both below the selected study. Nine midterm observations offer limited confidence, not proof of an election effect. Each comparison reuses midterm observations, and the shorter history sits within the longer: agreement is not independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022) | 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 88.89% | 3.59% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 0.83% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 1.18% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Earnings first, history in perspective
Fiscal 2027 first-quarter results are scheduled after today’s close, with a 2:30 p.m. Pacific webcast. The saved check contains no first-quarter results.[3]
Below, recorded prices end October 27, 2026. TradeWave’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s nine selected midterm years to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 28–January 19, 2027, separately from the full seasonal window. It is no forecast or price target. Inspect this same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
9 selected midterm-election years (1990–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results · 2026-07-29
- Microsoft Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call · 2026-07-29
- Microsoft announces quarterly earnings release date · 2026-10-07
- TradeWave MSFT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-28