O’Reilly investors considering its approaching seasonal window have a business question to settle first: what will third-quarter results reveal? The release remains scheduled for after 3:30 p.m. Central today, October 28, ahead of November’s entry.[2][3]
TradeWave’s November 1–June 29 window finished higher in all seven selected midterm-election years spanning 1998–2022. That favorable seasonal record warrants attention now, although broader histories include losses.[3]
The July baseline
July 29 results covered the quarter ended June 30: sales reached $4.89 billion versus $4.53 billion a year earlier; comparable-store sales grew 6.0%. Management credited execution of its service and parts-availability strategy, with professional and do-it-yourself sales both growing.[1]
Diluted EPS rose to $0.86 from $0.78; $2.43 billion of first-half repurchases matters when assessing per-share growth. Management raised its 2026 comparable-sales forecast to 4%–6%, projecting revenue of $18.9 billion–$19.2 billion and EPS of $3.20–$3.30. These July forecasts cannot establish November’s business conditions.[1]
O’Reilly’s reported second-quarter sales rose
Quarter ended June 30; company-reported sales
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 4.53 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 4.89 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable selected record
TradeWave’s selected history gives the approaching November 1, 2026–June 29, 2027 period its seasonal context. The median full-window long result was 16.76% before costs. Seven observations support investigating the timing, without establishing an election-driven cause or an expected return.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +25.15% | +31.87% | -6.88% |
| 2002 | +22.30% | +29.30% | -16.29% |
| 2006 | +15.30% | +22.52% | -1.77% |
| 2010 | +12.05% | +13.39% | -7.49% |
| 2014 | +28.76% | +32.97% | -0.48% |
| 2018 | +16.76% | +29.33% | -0.46% |
| 2022 | +12.40% | +15.66% | -8.00% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Gains could include uncomfortable declines
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. November 1, 2022–June 29, 2023 is useful because its 12.4% ending gain coexisted with a move 8.0% below the starting price. The highs and lows reveal movement hidden by the ending result, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +25.15% | +31.87% | -6.88% |
| 2002 | +22.30% | +29.30% | -16.29% |
| 2006 | +15.30% | +22.52% | -1.77% |
| 2010 | +12.05% | +13.39% | -7.49% |
| 2014 | +28.76% | +32.97% | -0.48% |
| 2018 | +16.76% | +29.33% | -0.46% |
| 2022 | +12.40% | +15.66% | -8.00% |
Broader histories soften the signal
Checking consecutive windows tests whether the favorable reading extends across all years: 2016–2025 had 70.0% profitable windows, versus 75.0% for 2006–2025. The recent record is less consistent. The shorter sample shares 2018 and 2022 with the selected study; the longer shares 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. These overlapping histories provide limited independent confirmation of seven selected observations.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 16.76% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 9.94% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 13.85% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Earnings first, then the window
The price illustration below uses this article’s seven selected midterm years. Recorded prices end October 27, 2026; the engine’s seasonal overlay illustrates historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 28–January 19, 2027. That shorter horizon is separate from the full seasonal window and is neither a price target nor an earnings prediction.[3]
After today’s release, the October 29 call at 10:00 a.m. Central offers the next discussion of results.[2]
In TradeWave, inspect this same window across histories and compare ending gains with the declines endured.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.