For QQQ holders, September’s technology-led gain raises a practical question: how much confidence should they place in the seasonal opportunity now underway?[1][3]
The October 25, 2026–April 26, 2027 window has begun. TradeWave’s six selected midterm-election windows from 2002–2022 all finished higher. That favorable record gives investors a reason to examine these dates, although broader histories include losing windows.[3]
September’s uneven gains
Invesco’s October 26 review reports September’s 3.28% gain at net asset value, versus the S&P 500’s 0.35% decline. It attributes relative outperformance primarily to technology holdings and their overweight. QQQ technology averaged 67.04% of assets and returned 7.39%, versus 44.77% and 5.17% for S&P 500 technology.[1]
Only one of QQQ’s nine sectors rose. Consumer discretionary’s overweight was the greatest relative detractor, and net outflows were $4.792 billion. These September observations do not establish October conditions; Invesco cautions that past performance does not guarantee future results.[1]
Technology led QQQ’s September sector returns
Reported returns for selected QQQ sector holdings, September 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | +7.39% | September 2026 | reported |
| Consumer discretionary | -5.51% | September 2026 | reported |
| Energy | -11.11% | September 2026 | reported |
What the selected windows show
TradeWave supplies the timing evidence: the selected windows averaged 11.57% across all six observations. These complete-window results describe a favorable seasonal record, not the return remaining after October 28. Six observations also leave considerable uncertainty about repetition.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.25% | +16.56% | -5.59% |
| 2006 | +9.91% | +10.15% | -1.93% |
| 2010 | +13.74% | +14.15% | -2.00% |
| 2014 | +12.40% | +13.32% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +11.97% | +12.31% | -15.89% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +13.61% | -8.84% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A positive finish can conceal losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 25, 2018–April 26, 2019 is useful because its 11.97% ending gain coexisted with a move 15.89% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal the range endured, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +11.25% | +16.56% | -5.59% |
| 2006 | +9.91% | +10.15% | -1.93% |
| 2010 | +13.74% | +14.15% | -2.00% |
| 2014 | +12.40% | +13.32% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +11.97% | +12.31% | -15.89% |
| 2022 | +10.17% | +13.61% | -8.84% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms. Both 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 had 80.0% profitable windows, weakening confidence in an unbroken winning record. They offer limited independent confirmation: the shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected midterm except 2002 and contains the entire shorter history.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 11.61% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inspect the range before extrapolating
The price illustration below pairs prices recorded through October 27, 2026 with TradeWave’s normalized seasonal overlay using this article’s six selected midterm years. October 28, 2026–January 19, 2027 covers the next 60 weekdays, a separate horizon from the full window. It illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices or a target. Next, inspect in TradeWave how the same window’s ending results compare with its within-window ranges.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Invesco QQQ monthly review · 2026-10-26
- Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results · 2026-07-29
- TradeWave QQQ seasonal evidence · 2026-10-28