SPY investors face a timely question: what will tomorrow’s GDP report add to the economic backdrop as a historically favorable seasonal window opens? SPY is an exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500.[1][3][4]
The October 29–December 2 window spans 35 calendar days. TradeWave’s seven selected midterm-election years from 1998–2022 all finished higher, although broader histories include losses. How much confidence does that seasonal record deserve?[4]
The economy before entry
BLS’s October 14 release showed September CPI rising 0.6% from August, seasonally adjusted, versus August’s 0.4%. The unadjusted 12-month increase was 3.7%. Gasoline rose 9.1%, accounting for more than half the monthly headline increase; excluding food and energy, CPI rose 0.3%, unchanged from August.[2]
BEA’s September 30 estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annual rate, against a revised 2.5% in the first quarter. The advance third-quarter estimate is due October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, still upcoming for this October 28 edition.[3]
State Street’s July 7 comparison uses March 31 prices and spreads, not current quotes. Index moves alone do not establish attainable SPY returns after fund costs and trading effects.[1]
September inflation: headline, core and energy
BLS-reported changes from August 2026, seasonally adjusted
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items | 0.6 | September 2026 | reported |
| Excluding food and energy | 0.3 | September 2026 | reported |
| Energy | 5.2 | September 2026 | reported |
What the selected windows delivered
TradeWave’s seasonal record gives the selected window a 5.36% median full-window long result before trading costs. Its last observation was October 27, which cannot establish conditions at the October 29 entry.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can include a difficult decline
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 29–December 2, 2022 illustrates the distinction: SPY finished up 5.36% but traded 4.51% below the starting price. The highs and lows do not reveal their order or a peak-to-trough drawdown, and provide neither stops nor forecasts.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | +7.20% | +9.43% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +6.28% | +8.45% | -1.26% |
| 2006 | +2.53% | +2.71% | -1.59% |
| 2010 | +3.43% | +3.76% | -0.76% |
| 2014 | +4.53% | +4.93% | -0.36% |
| 2018 | +5.85% | +6.58% | -0.30% |
| 2022 | +5.36% | +6.16% | -4.51% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests the small midterm sample’s consistency: success rates were 80.0% in 2016–2025 and 70.0% in 2006–2025, making the pattern less convincing further back. Both histories reuse 2018 and 2022; the longer also reuses 2006, 2010 and 2014. These overlapping observations offer limited independent confirmation and do not establish an election effect.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022) | 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.36% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.56% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 70.0% | 2.83% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Growth news and historical shape
Tomorrow’s GDP report can clarify growth’s direction, without validating a seasonal return. In TradeWave, inspect this window’s broader histories and ranges.[3][4]
The price illustration below uses this article’s seven selected midterm years for the engine’s seasonal overlay, showing historical shape on a normalized scale. Recorded prices end October 27, 2026. October 28, 2026–January 19, 2027 covers only the illustration’s next 60 weekdays, a separate horizon from the full seasonal window, not future recorded prices or a price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
7 selected midterm-election years (1998–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Comparing SPY and SPYM: Two State Street ETFs for S&P 500® exposure · 2026-07-07
- Consumer Price Index News Release - 2026 M09 Results · 2026-10-14
- GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026; State PCE, 2025 · 2026-09-30
- TradeWave SPY seasonal evidence · 2026-10-28