Mastercard investors want to know whether payments growth can keep outpacing costs. This October 29, 2026 preview uses a saved source check at about 08:16 UTC, before the scheduled 9:00 a.m. Eastern call; it contains no third-quarter results. The October 8 notice confirmed that day’s release, not its outcome.[3]
The November 2–August 14 window finished higher in all ten studies starting in 2016–2025, versus 17 of 19 starting in 2007–2025. Ahead of November 2, 2026, the question is how much confidence that favorable seasonal record deserves.[4]
The June-quarter benchmark
Mastercard’s Class A stock trades as MA on the NYSE. Its July 30 report covered the quarter ended June 30: revenue reached $9.3 billion versus $8.1 billion a year earlier, up 14% reported or 12% currency neutral. GAAP diluted EPS was $4.97 versus $4.07; adjusted diluted EPS was $5.04 versus $4.15.[1]
Management credited payment-network and value-added-services growth. Customer rebates and incentives rose 22%, reflecting business drivers and new or renewed deals; operating expenses rose 10%, primarily from general and administrative costs.[1]
The October 15 Global Money Platform announcement confirmed August’s completed BVNK acquisition. Combining payments and stablecoin infrastructure is strategic context: the release quantified no revenue contribution or third-quarter earnings effect.[2]
Mastercard’s reported second-quarter revenue rose
Net revenue for quarters ended June 30
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 8.1 | Q2 2025 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 9.3 | Q2 2026 | reported |
A favorable full-window record
TradeWave’s selected study supplies a 23.0% median full-window long result before costs. That describes historical share performance through August 14 of the following year, not an earnings forecast.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +26.79% | +27.86% | -4.32% |
| 2017 | +38.11% | +45.16% | -5.15% |
| 2018 | +35.70% | +43.92% | -13.06% |
| 2019 | +18.76% | +25.83% | -27.53% |
| 2020 | +25.83% | +38.80% | +0.00% |
| 2021 | +10.05% | +21.91% | -7.31% |
| 2022 | +25.21% | +27.28% | -3.51% |
| 2023 | +20.78% | +28.24% | +0.00% |
| 2024 | +15.98% | +17.99% | -7.77% |
| 2025 | +5.15% | +8.38% | -14.35% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Winning endings can conceal declines
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole year. November 2, 2025–August 14, 2026 is useful as a recent example: it ended up 5.15% but reached 14.35% below the starting price. These highs and lows reveal discomfort hidden by the ending result, without showing their order or peak-to-trough drawdown.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +26.79% | +27.86% | -4.32% |
| 2017 | +38.11% | +45.16% | -5.15% |
| 2018 | +35.70% | +43.92% | -13.06% |
| 2019 | +18.76% | +25.83% | -27.53% |
| 2020 | +25.83% | +38.80% | +0.00% |
| 2021 | +10.05% | +21.91% | -7.31% |
| 2022 | +25.21% | +27.28% | -3.51% |
| 2023 | +20.78% | +28.24% | +0.00% |
| 2024 | +15.98% | +17.99% | -7.77% |
| 2025 | +5.15% | +8.38% | -14.35% |
Looking further back
The broader 2007–2025 check tests whether recent strength persists: its median is 20.78%, and it includes all ten selected windows. The four selected midterm-election years from 2010–2022 also finished higher, preserving the favorable reading. Four observations offer limited confidence; 2018 and 2022 overlap the primary study, and all four overlap the longer history, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 100.0% | 23.0% |
| 19 consecutive historical windows (2007–2025) | 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 89.47% | 20.78% |
| 4 selected midterm-election years (2010–2022) | 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 30.46% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
The new report’s volume, services growth and costs are the next business questions.[1][3]
Below, recorded prices end October 28, 2026. TradeWave’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s 2016–2025 years to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 29–January 20, 2027, separate from the full window ending August 14, 2027. Those future dates belong only to the illustration, not recorded prices or a forecast. Inspect the same window’s histories and ranges in TradeWave.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Mastercard Incorporated Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-07-30
- Mastercard and BVNK Launch Global Money Platform to Power a Multi-Money World · 2026-10-15
- Mastercard Incorporated to Host Conference Call on Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · 2026-10-08
- TradeWave MA seasonal evidence · 2026-10-29