Sherwin-Williams’ 7.9% third-quarter sales growth leaves investors asking whether earnings can keep pace while demand remains muted.[1]
That question meets a favorable seasonal window beginning today, October 29, 2026, through January 11, 2027. All 10 selected midterm-election observations finished higher, although broader histories contain losses. How much confidence should investors place in that timing advantage?[3]
Sales outpace earnings
The October 27 release covered the quarter ended September 30. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.38 versus $3.35 in Q3 2025; adjusted EPS was $3.63 versus $3.59. Sales grew across all segments, aided by pricing and Suvinil. Paint Stores achieved low-single-digit volume growth and gains across professional markets.[1]
Consumer Brands benefited from Suvinil, currency translation and mix despite soft North American demand. Its profit fell as raw material and supply chain costs, acquisition expenses and currency transactions outweighed higher sales. Consolidated gross margin faced costs, Suvinil dilution and faster growth in lower-margin segments; year-to-date margin excluding Suvinil was flat.[1]
Management expects muted demand into 2027, forecasting mid-single-digit fourth-quarter sales growth and maintaining mid-to-high-single-digit full-year growth. Revised 2026 GAAP diluted EPS guidance is $10.92–$11.22 versus $10.26 in 2025, including $0.82 amortization and $0.11 restructuring expenses. Narrowed adjusted guidance is $11.85–$12.15 versus $11.43.[1]
Sherwin-Williams reported quarterly sales
Second and third quarters of 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 6.79 | Q2 2026 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 6.86 | Q3 2026 | reported |
A favorable midterm record
TradeWave’s selected record spans 10 midterm-election years from 1986–2022. Its 11.72% median covers the complete 75-day seasonal window before costs, not an expected return from today.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +14.75% | +15.21% | -4.13% |
| 1990 | +14.52% | +26.45% | -2.37% |
| 1994 | +0.44% | +2.75% | -8.41% |
| 1998 | +19.44% | +25.58% | -0.26% |
| 2002 | +4.73% | +7.56% | -3.00% |
| 2006 | +8.93% | +10.40% | -2.21% |
| 2010 | +14.64% | +17.05% | -2.36% |
| 2014 | +22.48% | +24.49% | -0.17% |
| 2018 | +8.19% | +18.59% | -0.21% |
| 2022 | +8.59% | +18.34% | -5.85% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
Positive finishes concealed declines
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole year. October 29, 2022–January 11, 2023 illustrates the distinction: an 8.59% finish accompanied a move 5.85% below the starting price. These highs and lows reveal discomfort hidden by ending returns, without establishing their order or peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 | +14.75% | +15.21% | -4.13% |
| 1990 | +14.52% | +26.45% | -2.37% |
| 1994 | +0.44% | +2.75% | -8.41% |
| 1998 | +19.44% | +25.58% | -0.26% |
| 2002 | +4.73% | +7.56% | -3.00% |
| 2006 | +8.93% | +10.40% | -2.21% |
| 2010 | +14.64% | +17.05% | -2.36% |
| 2014 | +22.48% | +24.49% | -0.17% |
| 2018 | +8.19% | +18.59% | -0.21% |
| 2022 | +8.59% | +18.34% | -5.85% |
Broader histories include losses
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond midterms: eight of 10 windows in 2016–2025 and 15 of 20 in 2006–2025 gained. Both remain favorable, less consistently. The shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer also reuses 2006, 2010 and 2014. Overlap and limited observations weaken independent confirmation, not establish election causation.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 11.72% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 7.26% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 8.11% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inspect the range behind the pattern
The next business question is whether forecast growth produces stronger earnings despite cost pressure.[1]
Inspect this same window’s outcomes in TradeWave. Recorded prices end October 28, before entry. The following chart uses the selected midterm years for the engine’s seasonal overlay across the next 60 weekdays, October 29–January 20. That separate horizon illustrates historical shape, not future recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.