Caterpillar’s stronger third-quarter results give shareholders a fresh question: what does the business improvement mean for their assessment of the shares?[1]
Timing adds context. The 83-day October 27, 2026–January 17, 2027 window is underway. Nine of ten selected historical windows gained, although the longer record is less convincing. How much weight should investors give that seasonal strength now?[3]
Growth, costs and dividend eligibility
The October 29 release reported third-quarter revenue of $20.7 billion versus $17.6 billion in 2025, up 17%, chiefly from volume and pricing. GAAP profit per share rose to $7.13 from $4.88; adjusted profit rose to $7.20 from $4.95, excluding restructuring costs.[1]
Sales grew across all three primary segments. Data center applications contributed to Power Generation growth. Volume and pricing lifted Construction and Resource Industries profits, partly offset by manufacturing costs: freight in Construction and materials, including tariffs, in Resources. Operating profit included $128 million of tariff recoveries. The captured release supplies no quantified full-year guidance.[1]
The October 14 declaration schedules $1.63 per share for November 19, payable to shareholders of record at October 26’s close. That deadline has passed; buying afterward does not qualify a buyer for this payment.[2]
Caterpillar's reported third-quarter revenue rose
Sales and revenues, third quarter
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 17.6 | Q3 2025 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 20.7 | Q3 2026 | reported |
What the selected history measures
TradeWave’s 2016–2025 seasonal record measures complete windows before trading costs, not returns remaining today. Its last market observation, October 29, cannot establish conditions later in this window.[3]
The year-by-year seasonal record
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +12.72% | +17.34% | -3.23% |
| 2017 | +22.27% | +25.71% | -2.90% |
| 2018 | +18.04% | +24.94% | -0.77% |
| 2019 | +6.25% | +7.49% | -2.62% |
| 2020 | +23.55% | +26.76% | -5.24% |
| 2021 | +17.20% | +17.49% | -2.43% |
| 2022 | +20.80% | +22.80% | -0.44% |
| 2023 | +16.80% | +25.42% | -6.20% |
| 2024 | -1.18% | +7.14% | -10.45% |
| 2025 | +19.62% | +24.40% | -1.02% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A small ending loss can hide discomfort
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. October 27, 2024–January 17, 2025 illustrates why endings alone can mislead: CAT finished down 1.18% but reached 10.45% below the starting price. Highs and lows reveal neither their order nor peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
View exact TradeWave observations and download
| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +12.72% | +17.34% | -3.23% |
| 2017 | +22.27% | +25.71% | -2.90% |
| 2018 | +18.04% | +24.94% | -0.77% |
| 2019 | +6.25% | +7.49% | -2.62% |
| 2020 | +23.55% | +26.76% | -5.24% |
| 2021 | +17.20% | +17.49% | -2.43% |
| 2022 | +20.80% | +22.80% | -0.44% |
| 2023 | +16.80% | +25.42% | -6.20% |
| 2024 | -1.18% | +7.14% | -10.45% |
| 2025 | +19.62% | +24.40% | -1.02% |
Looking beyond the recent decade
Checking durability, the 2006–2025 record lowers success from 90.0% to 75.0% and includes the entire primary sample. Ten selected midterm-election years spanning 1986–2022 remain favorable at 80.0%, but reuse 2018 and 2022 from the primary study. These limited, overlapping histories temper confidence rather than independently confirm an election effect.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 17.62% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 75.0% | 13.1% |
| 10 selected midterm-election years (1986–2022) | 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 80.0% | 15.97% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Inspect the shape and the range
Next, compare this same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave. Below, recorded prices end October 29, 2026. The engine’s normalized seasonal overlay uses this article’s selected 2016–2025 years across the next 60 weekdays, October 30–January 21, 2027, a separate horizon from the full window. Those future dates belong only to the historical illustration, not recorded prices, an earnings prediction or a price target.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Caterpillar Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Results · 2026-10-29
- Caterpillar Inc. Maintains Dividend · 2026-10-14
- TradeWave CAT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-30