Hilton shareholders have stronger quarterly profits to weigh against expected fourth-quarter pressures. How much confidence should they place in the shares’ favorable winter history?[1][3]
The November 20, 2026–February 14, 2027 window approaches with all ten historical windows starting in 2016–2025 finishing higher. But looking back to 2014 adds a 19.02% loss in the window starting in 2015, making that perfect recent record less reassuring.[3]
Stronger profits, qualified guidance
Hilton’s October 27 release covers the quarter ended September 30. Net income reached $536 million versus $421 million a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA rose to $1,058 million from $976 million. GAAP and adjusted diluted EPS also improved.[1]
Comparable, currency-neutral system-wide revenue per available room rose 5.8%, driven by occupancy and average daily rate; management and franchise fees grew 9.5%. Management cited World Cup and favorable calendar and holiday benefits, but expects fourth-quarter pressure from midterm elections and the Middle East.[1]
Full-year forecasts include RevPAR growth of 4.0%–4.5%, GAAP diluted EPS of $8.38–$8.44 and adjusted diluted EPS of $9.07–$9.13. The $4,060 million–$4,080 million adjusted EBITDA outlook incorporates lower expectations for Middle East performance and timeshare license fees.[1]
Hilton’s third-quarter net income rose
Reported net income for quarters ended September 30
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 421 | Three months ended September 30, 2025 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 536 | Three months ended September 30, 2026 | reported |
What the winter gains show
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record puts the median full-window long result at 13.02%. That describes completed historical periods before costs, not an expected gain from today. September’s business results cannot establish conditions at November’s entry.[3][1]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +15.71% | +18.25% | +0.00% |
| 2017 | +15.69% | +18.57% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +12.13% | +12.28% | -8.19% |
| 2019 | +14.07% | +16.34% | -1.01% |
| 2020 | +11.65% | +13.67% | -3.13% |
| 2021 | +5.25% | +10.66% | -9.72% |
| 2022 | +9.76% | +10.84% | -10.27% |
| 2023 | +13.91% | +17.13% | -2.32% |
| 2024 | +6.29% | +10.03% | -4.57% |
| 2025 | +20.31% | +26.38% | +0.00% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can include a substantial dip
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not the whole calendar year. November 20, 2022–February 14, 2023 is useful because its 9.76% ending gain coexisted with a move 10.27% below the starting price. The highs and lows show what an investor might endure, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[3]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | +15.71% | +18.25% | +0.00% |
| 2017 | +15.69% | +18.57% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +12.13% | +12.28% | -8.19% |
| 2019 | +14.07% | +16.34% | -1.01% |
| 2020 | +11.65% | +13.67% | -3.13% |
| 2021 | +5.25% | +10.66% | -9.72% |
| 2022 | +9.76% | +10.84% | -10.27% |
| 2023 | +13.91% | +17.13% | -2.32% |
| 2024 | +6.29% | +10.03% | -4.57% |
| 2025 | +20.31% | +26.38% | +0.00% |
Looking further back
Checking other histories tests how dependent the reading is on selected years. The 2014–2025 median is 12.35%, versus 13.02% for 2016–2025, retaining a favorable picture but losing perfection. All ten primary observations recur. The selected midterm years, 2014, 2018 and 2022, also gained; three observations offer limited confidence, with two reused from the primary study and all three from the longer history.[3]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 100.0% | 13.02% |
| 12 consecutive historical windows (2014–2025) | 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 91.67% | 12.35% |
| 3 selected midterm-election years (2014–2022) | 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 12.13% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before November’s entry
The next scheduled checkpoint is November 5: Hilton’s October 20 notice plans Nasdaq trading under HLT. The transfer remains pending as of October 30.[2]
Below, recorded prices end October 29, 2026. TradeWave’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s 2016–2025 sample for the next 60 weekdays, October 30–January 21, 2027, separately from the full window. It illustrates historical shape, not a forecast or price target. Before entry, inspect the same window’s broader history and range of outcomes in TradeWave.[3]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Hilton Reports Third Quarter Results · 2026-10-27
- Hilton Announces Planned Transfer of Stock Listing to Nasdaq · 2026-10-20
- TradeWave HLT seasonal evidence · 2026-10-30