Can stronger operating results sustain investor confidence while inflation remains elevated? Amazon’s outlook and the Fed’s October 28 rate hold bring that question into the S&P 500’s seasonal window.[3][2][4]
The October 30, 2026–July 22, 2027 window opens today. The same seasonal period finished higher in all 15 selected midterm years from 1966–2022, although broader histories were less consistent. How much confidence should investors place in that favorable record?[4]
Growth strengthens, with qualifications
BEA’s October 29 advance estimate put third-quarter real GDP growth at a 3.4% annual rate, versus 2.2% in the second quarter. Investment, consumer spending and government spending contributed; falling exports partly offset them.[1]
The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4% on October 28, saying inflation remained elevated.[2]
Amazon’s October 29 release reported third-quarter sales of $201.9 billion, up 12%, and operating income of $28.1 billion versus $17.4 billion a year earlier. Prime Day’s shift into the second quarter in most large countries weakened the sales comparison. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was a $42.4 billion outflow, primarily reflecting increased property and equipment spending for AI.[3]
U.S. real GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter
Reported quarterly growth at seasonally adjusted annual rates
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.2 | 2026 Q2 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 3.4 | 2026 Q3 | reported |
Favorable endings in selected midterms
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a median full-window index increase of 17.63%. These are windows beginning in selected midterm years, not consecutive years. The spot index cannot be invested in directly; its changes do not establish attainable futures, options or exchange-traded product profits.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +16.87% | +18.77% | -1.63% |
| 1970 | +19.05% | +26.85% | -1.23% |
| 1974 | +23.07% | +29.97% | -13.70% |
| 1978 | +6.87% | +10.64% | -3.46% |
| 1982 | +24.67% | +26.67% | -1.90% |
| 1986 | +26.57% | +29.08% | -3.36% |
| 1990 | +25.92% | +28.68% | -0.81% |
| 1994 | +17.84% | +19.18% | -6.24% |
| 1998 | +23.87% | +29.28% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +10.94% | +14.00% | -11.43% |
| 2006 | +11.88% | +12.92% | -1.23% |
| 2010 | +13.56% | +15.72% | -0.96% |
| 2014 | +5.99% | +7.02% | -1.11% |
| 2018 | +11.27% | +12.49% | -12.53% |
| 2022 | +17.63% | +18.25% | -4.49% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A higher finish can conceal a decline
The October 30, 2018–July 22, 2019 window illustrates why the ending result alone is insufficient: it ended 11.27% higher but fell 12.53% below its starting level. The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not a whole calendar year. Its highs and lows reveal moves endured, without establishing their order or peak-to-trough losses.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1966 | +16.87% | +18.77% | -1.63% |
| 1970 | +19.05% | +26.85% | -1.23% |
| 1974 | +23.07% | +29.97% | -13.70% |
| 1978 | +6.87% | +10.64% | -3.46% |
| 1982 | +24.67% | +26.67% | -1.90% |
| 1986 | +26.57% | +29.08% | -3.36% |
| 1990 | +25.92% | +28.68% | -0.81% |
| 1994 | +17.84% | +19.18% | -6.24% |
| 1998 | +23.87% | +29.28% | +0.00% |
| 2002 | +10.94% | +14.00% | -11.43% |
| 2006 | +11.88% | +12.92% | -1.23% |
| 2010 | +13.56% | +15.72% | -0.96% |
| 2014 | +5.99% | +7.02% | -1.11% |
| 2018 | +11.27% | +12.49% | -12.53% |
| 2022 | +17.63% | +18.25% | -4.49% |
Broader histories temper confidence
Checking across all years preserves the favorable reading but weakens its consistency: both 2016–2025 and 2006–2025 had 90.0% positive windows. The latter’s median was 9.51%, versus 17.63% for selected midterms. Fifteen observations cannot establish an election effect. Both comparisons reuse midterm observations; the shorter history also sits entirely within the longer one, limiting independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022) | 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 17.63% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 10.6% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 90.0% | 9.51% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
What to inspect next
Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter sales of $240 billion–$247 billion, up 12%–16%, and operating income of $28.5 billion–$33.5 billion versus $25.0 billion in fourth-quarter 2025. These are expectations as of October 29, subject to substantial uncertainty, rather than reported results.[3]
BEA’s second GDP estimate, scheduled for November 25, will provide the next reading on third-quarter growth.[1]
Inspect this same window across histories and compare its range of outcomes in TradeWave. Below, recorded index levels end October 29, 2026. The engine’s seasonal overlay uses this article’s selected midterm years, rescaled onto the chart, for the next 60 weekdays, October 30, 2026–January 21, 2027. That future span belongs only to the historical illustration and is shorter than the full seasonal window. It is neither a forecast nor a price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
15 selected midterm-election years (1966–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 · 2026-10-29
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement · 2026-10-28
- Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results · 2026-10-29
- TradeWave SPX seasonal evidence · 2026-10-30