For investors in the XLI exchange-traded fund, GE Vernova’s October 28 forecast increase raises a timely question: how should stronger industrial results inform expectations as a favorable seasonal period begins?[2][4]
The October 30–December 2 window finished higher in all six selected midterm years from 2002–2022, although broader histories include losses. Today is the planned entry; observations through October 29 cannot establish entry conditions or subsequent returns.[4]
Company growth, uneven output
GE Aerospace’s October 20 release reported third-quarter GAAP revenue of $14.1 billion, up 16% year over year, and adjusted revenue of $13.3 billion, up 18%. Management linked stronger year-to-date services revenue and engine deliveries partly to increased material input from priority suppliers.[1]
GE Vernova reported third-quarter revenue of $12.6 billion, up 27%, led by Power and Electrification. Management attributed backlog expansion to equipment growth in both businesses and Power services, with favorable pricing and disciplined underwriting improving backlog margins.[2]
Its raised 2026 forecasts are revenue of $46.5–$47.5 billion, previously $45.5–$46.5 billion; adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%–14.5%, previously 12%–14%; and free cash flow of $16–$17 billion, previously $11.5–$12.5 billion. The latter two measures are non-GAAP.[2]
September U.S. industrial output was uneven
Federal Reserve reported monthly changes, September 2026
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| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total industrial production | 0.7 | September 2026 | reported |
| Manufacturing | 0.3 | September 2026 | reported |
| Utilities | 3.5 | September 2026 | reported |
| Motor vehicles and parts | -3 | September 2026 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record gives the timing question historical context: the median full-window gain was 5.68%. These six midterm-election observations are scattered across 2002–2022, not consecutive years. Their favorable record cannot establish an election effect or a future return.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +6.74% | +8.71% | -1.72% |
| 2006 | +2.94% | +3.55% | -1.66% |
| 2010 | +5.56% | +5.78% | -1.12% |
| 2014 | +3.64% | +5.40% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +5.81% | +7.37% | -0.39% |
| 2022 | +8.46% | +8.84% | -2.91% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A winning finish can include losses
The yearly range chart shows each year’s same seasonal period, not its whole calendar year. October 30–December 2, 2022 is useful because its 8.46% ending gain coexisted with a move 2.91% below the starting price. Highs and lows do not reveal their order or measure peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +6.74% | +8.71% | -1.72% |
| 2006 | +2.94% | +3.55% | -1.66% |
| 2010 | +5.56% | +5.78% | -1.12% |
| 2014 | +3.64% | +5.40% | +0.00% |
| 2018 | +5.81% | +7.37% | -0.39% |
| 2022 | +8.46% | +8.84% | -2.91% |
Looking beyond midterm years
Checking across all years tests whether the favorable reading extends beyond six observations. It does, with losses: the median was 5.69% in 2016–2025 versus 3.29% in 2006–2025. The shorter history reuses 2018 and 2022; the longer reuses every selected midterm except 2002 and contains the shorter history. Agreement therefore offers limited independent confirmation, while the smaller longer-history median tempers expectations.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 5.68% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 5.69% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 3.29% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Revisit production and historical ranges
The Fed’s November 24 annual revision is the next confirmed opportunity to reassess the production backdrop.[3]
In TradeWave, inspect this window’s outcomes across histories. The price illustration below uses the same six selected midterm years. Recorded prices end October 29, 2026; the engine’s normalized seasonal overlay illustrates historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 30–January 21, 2027. That separate horizon extends beyond the 34-day study window and supplies neither a prediction nor a price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.