XLK investors have strong Microsoft cloud results to consider while awaiting NVIDIA’s next report. How much confidence should they place in the fund’s seasonal history during that wait?[1][4][5]
The October 30, 2026–May 8, 2027 window starts today. All six selected midterm-election windows from 2002–2022 gained, although broader histories include losses. Observations end October 29, so they establish neither today’s entry conditions nor performance within this window.[5]
Cloud strength, uneven business results
Microsoft’s October 28 release reported September-quarter revenue of $92,279 million versus $77,673 million a year earlier. Cloud revenue reached $63.9 billion, up 30%; Windows OEM and Devices revenue fell 22%.[1]
Management credited Foundry and better monetization of existing CPU capacity for Azure strength despite third-party delivery delays. GitHub Copilot strength partly offset weaker Microsoft 365 sales execution. The separate Windows OEM decline reflected prior-year Windows 10 support-ending demand, inventory drawdowns and weaker PC demand.[2]
NVIDIA’s August 26 release reported $96.2 billion revenue for the quarter ended July 26. Its fiscal third-quarter forecasts were $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, excluding China Data Center compute revenue, and GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.[3]
Microsoft's reported quarterly revenue increased
Fiscal first quarters ended September 30; GAAP revenue
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 Q1 | 77,673 | Three months ended September 30, 2025 | reported |
| FY2027 Q1 | 92,279 | Three months ended September 30, 2026 | reported |
Six favorable midterm windows
TradeWave’s selected seasonal record shows a median full-window long result of 10.15%. These six separated midterm years offer encouraging timing history, but too few observations to establish a dependable election effect.[5]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +7.95% | +20.68% | -8.77% |
| 2006 | +10.44% | +10.48% | -1.44% |
| 2010 | +9.87% | +11.56% | -2.59% |
| 2014 | +8.79% | +10.11% | -0.81% |
| 2018 | +13.81% | +18.64% | -14.58% |
| 2022 | +18.81% | +19.28% | -7.55% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain can conceal a difficult holding period
The yearly range chart covers the same seasonal period each year. October 30, 2018–May 8, 2019 is useful because its 13.81% ending gain coexisted with a move 14.58% below the starting price. Those highs and lows reveal discomfort hidden by the ending result, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough drawdown.[5]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | +7.95% | +20.68% | -8.77% |
| 2006 | +10.44% | +10.48% | -1.44% |
| 2010 | +9.87% | +11.56% | -2.59% |
| 2014 | +8.79% | +10.11% | -0.81% |
| 2018 | +13.81% | +18.64% | -14.58% |
| 2022 | +18.81% | +19.28% | -7.55% |
Broader histories temper certainty
Checking across all years tests whether encouragement extends beyond midterms: both broader histories were 80.0% profitable. The median falls from 15.68% for 2016–2025 to 10.47% for 2006–2025, making magnitude less convincing further back. These nested histories reuse, respectively, 2018 and 2022, and every selected midterm except 2002. Their agreement offers limited independent confirmation of the small primary sample.[5]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022) | 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 10.15% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 15.68% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 10.47% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
November results and the historical shape
NVIDIA’s November 17 results call is the next opportunity to compare reported performance with its forecasts.[4][3]
Below, recorded prices end October 29, 2026. TradeWave’s normalized seasonal overlay uses this article’s six selected years to illustrate historical shape over the next 60 weekdays, October 30–January 21, 2027, separately from the full May-ending window. It is no price target or earnings prediction. Inspect the same window’s outcomes across histories in TradeWave.[5]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
6 selected midterm-election years (2002–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.
Sources & methodology
- Microsoft Announces First Quarter Results · 2026-10-28
- Microsoft Fiscal Year 2027 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call · 2026-10-28
- NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 · 2026-08-26
- NVIDIA Sets Conference Call for Third-Quarter Financial Results · 2026-10-28
- TradeWave XLK seasonal evidence · 2026-10-30