After September’s earnings report, Costco investors have two questions ahead of November: how much earnings growth can continue without a one-time boost, and how much confidence the shares’ seasonal history deserves.[2][4]
The November 5, 2026–August 1, 2027 window approaches with gains in all eight selected historical midterm windows. That favorable finding makes the approaching period worth examining, although losses in the broader 2006–2025 history weaken any expectation of an uninterrupted winning record.[4]
Growth behind the earnings
Costco’s September 24 fiscal 2026 results showed annual sales up 10.1% and quarterly sales up 11.2%. Quarterly EPS, $6.75 versus $5.87, included a nonrecurring $0.15 tariff-refund benefit after partial reinvestment in member values.[1]
Excluding that benefit, quarterly EPS grew 12.4% and net income 12.3%. Quarterly comparable sales rose 9.4%, or an adjusted 6.7%.[2]
Supplemental comparable sales do not replace GAAP net sales; quarterly adjustments exclude gasoline-price and currency effects.[1]
Costco annual net sales rose in fiscal 2026
Reported net sales for fiscal years ended August 2025 and August 2026
View chart data & download
| Measure | Value | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2025 | 269.9 | FY2025 | reported |
| Fiscal 2026 | 297.2 | FY2026 | reported |
What the selected midterms show
TradeWave’s seasonal record covers eight selected midterm-election years from 1994 through 2022, with a median full-window long result of 16.42%. These separated episodes offer historical context for timing; eight successes cannot establish the likelihood of another.[4]
The year-by-year seasonal record
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +17.00% | +18.58% | -24.11% |
| 1998 | +17.43% | +49.40% | -9.96% |
| 2002 | +8.52% | +15.48% | -20.09% |
| 2006 | +15.85% | +21.24% | -1.43% |
| 2010 | +19.49% | +29.09% | -2.28% |
| 2014 | +10.99% | +17.31% | -0.38% |
| 2018 | +18.03% | +22.21% | -18.98% |
| 2022 | +14.13% | +17.36% | -8.32% |
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
A gain could involve substantial losses
The yearly range chart shows the same seasonal period each year, not whole calendar years. November 5, 2018–August 1, 2019 is useful because its 18.03% ending gain coexisted with a move 18.98% below the starting price. Those highs and lows reveal discomfort hidden by the finish, without establishing their order or a peak-to-trough loss.[4]
What happened inside each seasonal window
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| Window starting year | Ending price change | Highest from entry | Lowest from entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +17.00% | +18.58% | -24.11% |
| 1998 | +17.43% | +49.40% | -9.96% |
| 2002 | +8.52% | +15.48% | -20.09% |
| 2006 | +15.85% | +21.24% | -1.43% |
| 2010 | +19.49% | +29.09% | -2.28% |
| 2014 | +10.99% | +17.31% | -0.38% |
| 2018 | +18.03% | +22.21% | -18.98% |
| 2022 | +14.13% | +17.36% | -8.32% |
Looking across all years
Broader histories test whether the favorable reading survives different year selections. All ten windows starting in 2016–2025 gained, versus 16 of 20 starting in 2006–2025: the perfect record becomes less convincing further back. The shorter comparison reuses two selected midterms; the longer reuses five and contains the shorter history. Their agreement offers limited independent confirmation.[4]
See the history behind this comparison
TradeWave checks the same seasonal dates across different sets of years. This helps show whether the pattern holds up when you look at another stretch of history.
| History | Observed start years | Direction | Success rate | Median result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Article study: 8 selected midterm-election years (1994–2022) | 1994, 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 | long | 100.0% | 16.42% |
| 10 consecutive historical windows (2016–2025) | 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 100.0% | 14.54% |
| 20 consecutive historical windows (2006–2025) | 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 | long | 80.0% | 12.56% |
Some years appear in more than one group, so agreement is not an independent test. A requested lookback can extend beyond available history; the observed years are listed above. Election-cycle groups use matching phases, not consecutive years. Results follow the direction shown: a positive short result means prices fell. Small samples and different market periods make the comparison less conclusive.
Before November entry
Ahead of November 5, the question is how much weight to put on eight favorable episodes. In TradeWave, compare this same window across histories and inspect its range of outcomes before treating the record as dependable.[4]
The price illustration below uses this article’s eight selected midterm years and overlays their average seasonal path on a comparable scale. Recorded prices end October 5, 2026. October 6–December 28 covers only the next 60 weekdays of historical illustration, a separate horizon from the full seasonal window, not a prediction or price target.[4]
Price history and the seasonal outlook
Explore this exact seasonal window in TradeWave. Compare its win rate and average result across different histories, and inspect how far prices moved above or below their starting point. Account access applies in TradeWave.
About this seasonal analysis
8 selected midterm-election years (1994–2022). The selected dates, years, direction, returns and ranges come from TradeWave. When a window boundary is a weekend or market holiday, TradeWave uses the next available trading session. SMN displays the returned results without recalculating them. A year label identifies the start of the historical window; a window can end in the following calendar year.
Green and red bars show the underlying adjusted-price movement. The range endpoints measure changes from the entry price, not a peak-to-trough loss. Historical results are before trading costs and do not guarantee future performance.