Crude Oil (WTI)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is the primary benchmark for U.S. oil pricing. It is one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
The seasonal picture for WTI crude splits sharply depending on which lens you apply. The last 10 consecutive years suggest a 6.84% gain over 30 days, targeting $97.94, but midterm election years tell a darker story: only a 30% win rate over 60 days and a brutal 20% win rate over 90 days, with that longer window projecting an 18% decline to $75.01.
Midterm years carry a historically punishing pattern for crude, likely tied to demand uncertainty and policy positioning ahead of elections. The near-term bounce potential exists, but the 60-to-90-day window is where midterm seasonality has consistently overwhelmed the broader trend. Watch the $84 level as the critical test.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Crude Oil (WTI) may be headed.
Projection as of Sep 04, 2026 from closing price $91.43
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Crude Oil (WTI) reflects how the commodity has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The consecutive pattern shows a 50.0% win rate, meaning prices finished higher in exactly half of those historical instances. The midterm election year pattern shows a notably lower 30.0% win rate, with a median return of negative 3.7%.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, that convergence can carry more weight than either pattern alone. Here, both project negative returns, with the consecutive basis at negative 7.6% and the election year basis at negative 16.3%. The median return is often more informative than the average because it is less distorted by unusually large gains or losses in outlier years.
Historical patterns cannot account for sudden supply disruptions, geopolitical developments, policy shifts, or macroeconomic shocks that fall outside the historical record. A 30% or 50% win rate does not guarantee any particular outcome in a given year. These figures represent statistical tendencies drawn from a limited sample, not predictions.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside technical analysis, fundamental supply and demand factors, and broader market conditions. Seasonal tendencies can inform expectations about timing and directional probability without serving as a standalone basis for any decision.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Crude Oil (WTI) has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of +1.3%.
Midterm Election Years (10 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 10 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 3 times with an average return of -2.5%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
Latest News
Recent headlines related to Crude Oil (WTI), sourced from major financial news outlets with AI sentiment analysis.
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