Crude Oil (WTI)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is the primary benchmark for U.S. oil pricing. It is one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Seasonal history sends a sharp warning for WTI crude right now. While the last 10 consecutive years show a modest 60-day recovery toward $108 with a 50% win rate, midterm election years tell a starkly different story: a projected 30-day drop to $80.30, a 21% loss, with only 40% of years finishing positive. That divergence widens at 90 days, where midterm cycles produce a 30% win rate and average losses of 7.4% versus a 60% win rate in the general dataset.
Crude oil's sensitivity to election-year policy uncertainty and demand-side positioning makes midterm cycles historically punishing. The current $101.20 price sits well above midterm seasonal targets across all three horizons. Watch the $90 level as the critical support zone where both 60-day projections converge.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Crude Oil (WTI) may be headed.
Projection as of Oct 29, 2026 from closing price $101.20
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Crude Oil (WTI) summarizes how the commodity has historically performed during this same calendar window across prior years. The consecutive pattern shows a 50.0% win rate, meaning WTI finished higher in exactly half of those historical periods, with an average return of +0.8% and a median of just +0.1%.
When the two bases diverge, as they do here, it signals that midterm election years have produced meaningfully different outcomes than the broader consecutive history. The midterm election year pattern shows a 40.0% win rate and an average return of -5.5%, suggesting the political cycle may introduce distinct market dynamics. Median returns are often more reliable reference points since they are less distorted by extreme outliers like the historical range of -32.1% to +30.8%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies only and cannot incorporate current geopolitical developments, supply disruptions, policy shifts, or macroeconomic surprises. Even a strong win rate carries no guarantee of a positive outcome in any individual year. These projections describe statistical tendencies, not predictions.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental supply and demand analysis, technical price levels, and broader risk frameworks. Seasonal tendencies can inform expectations about historical norms without serving as a standalone basis for any decision.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Crude Oil (WTI) has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of +0.8%.
Midterm Election Years (10 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 10 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 4 times with an average return of -5.5%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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