Crude Oil (WTI)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is the primary benchmark for U.S. oil pricing. It is one of the most actively traded commodities in the world.
Seasonal history offers a cautiously constructive near-term setup for WTI crude. The last 10 consecutive years show a 70% win rate over both 30 and 60-day windows, with median returns of 6.41% and 4.45% respectively, projecting prices toward $93.78 to $94.30. The 90-day picture softens considerably, with the win rate dropping to 50%.
Midterm election years introduce meaningful divergence. The 30-day win rate falls to just 50% with a negative average return of -0.87%, yet the 60-day window recovers to 60% with a strong 3.53% average gain. The clearest takeaway: crude's near-term seasonal edge is real but historically fades beyond two months in midterm cycles, making the 60-day window the critical inflection point to watch.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Crude Oil (WTI) may be headed.
Projection as of Jun 03, 2026 from closing price $94.86
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Crude Oil (WTI) reflects how this commodity has historically performed during this same calendar window across comparable years. The consecutive pattern shows a 70.0% win rate, meaning WTI closed higher in 70 out of every 100 similar historical periods. The midterm election year pattern carries a 60.0% win rate, offering a second lens filtered by political cycle context.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more consistency than when they diverge. Here, both project positive returns, at +2.0% and +1.3% respectively. The median return of +4.5% is often more useful than the average because it is less distorted by extreme outliers like the historical worst of -19.8%.
Seasonal patterns are backward-looking by nature and cannot account for geopolitical disruptions, supply shocks, policy shifts, or sudden changes in demand. A 70.0% win rate still implies a negative outcome roughly 30% of the time, and no statistical tendency guarantees a specific result in any given year.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one input among many, pairing it with fundamental supply-and-demand analysis and technical indicators to build a more complete picture of potential price behavior and timing expectations.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Crude Oil (WTI) has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 7 of 10 times with an average return of +0.1%.
Midterm Election Years (10 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 10 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 6 times with an average return of +3.5%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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