Gold
COMEX Gold futures are the world's most liquid gold contract. Gold serves as a store of value, inflation hedge, and safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
The seasonal picture for gold carries a notable split. Over the last 10 years, the 60-day window projects a 3.36% gain to $4,619 with a 60% win rate, making it the strongest near-term signal. But midterm election years tell a sharply different story: 30-day and 60-day projections both show negative returns of 11.9% and 6.4% respectively, each with only a 50% win rate.
That divergence is the key tension here. Gold historically softens during midterm cycles before recovering, as the 90-day midterm projection flips positive at 4.66%. Traders should watch whether current price momentum holds above $4,373 over the next month, since a breakdown would align more closely with the bearish midterm playbook than the broader 10-year trend.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Gold may be headed.
Projection as of Aug 14, 2026 from closing price $4,373.80
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Gold reflects how the asset has historically performed during this exact calendar window across prior years. The consecutive pattern shows a 60.0% win rate, meaning Gold closed higher than its starting price in 60 out of every 100 comparable periods. The midterm election year pattern tells a different story, with only a 50.0% win rate and a median return of negative 2.2%.
When the two bases diverge as they do here, pointing in opposite directions, it signals that the election cycle has historically produced meaningfully different conditions than the general consecutive pattern. The median return is often more useful than the average in these cases, since a single outlier year like the best historical return of positive 23.2% can significantly distort the average away from typical outcomes.
Seasonal patterns are built entirely from historical price behavior and cannot incorporate current geopolitical developments, central bank policy shifts, or sudden macroeconomic surprises. A 60.0% win rate still implies the asset declined in 40% of those periods, and no statistical tendency guarantees a specific outcome in any individual year.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside technical analysis, fundamental research, and broader portfolio risk frameworks. It can help calibrate expectations around timing and historical tendencies without serving as a standalone basis for any decision.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Gold has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 6 of 10 times with an average return of +2.0%.
Midterm Election Years (6 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 6 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 3 times with an average return of -0.4%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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