Gold
COMEX Gold futures are the world's most liquid gold contract. Gold serves as a store of value, inflation hedge, and safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
The most striking divergence in Gold's seasonal data sits between its general 10-year history and its midterm election year pattern. Over the last decade, the 90-day window carries a 60% win rate with an average return of +3.41%. But isolate midterm years specifically, and that same 90-day window collapses to a 33% win rate with a projected return of -23.93%, targeting $3,435.
Gold's midterm election year behavior is historically its weakest cyclical phase, and the deterioration compounds across time horizons, with 30-day, 60-day, and 90-day win rates all below 40%. Traders should watch whether the current $4,501 level holds through the near-term 30-day window, where midterm history shows only one positive outcome in six occurrences.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Gold may be headed.
Projection as of Jun 03, 2026 from closing price $4,501.20
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Gold reflects how the commodity has historically performed during this specific calendar window across comparable years. The consecutive pattern shows a 50.0% win rate, meaning Gold finished higher in exactly half of those historical periods, with an average return of +2.4%. The midterm election year pattern tells a different story, with a 33.3% win rate and an average return of -2.3%.
When the two bases diverge as they do here, pointing in opposite directions, it signals that the election cycle context has historically produced meaningfully different outcomes than the broader consecutive pattern. The median return is often more reliable than the average because it is less distorted by outlier years like the best historical return of +15.8% or the worst of -6.4%.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for sudden geopolitical developments, central bank policy shifts, currency moves, or other real-time market forces. A 50.0% win rate does not guarantee a positive outcome in any individual year. These projections represent statistical tendencies drawn from historical data, not predictions of future performance.
Seasonal data serves as one analytical lens among many. Market participants often use it alongside technical analysis, macroeconomic context, and risk management frameworks to better understand historical tendencies and calibrate expectations during specific calendar periods.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Gold has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of +2.4%.
Midterm Election Years (6 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 6 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 2 times with an average return of -2.3%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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