Natural Gas
Henry Hub Natural Gas futures represent the benchmark price for natural gas in North America, heavily influenced by weather patterns and seasonal demand.
The seasonal setup for Natural Gas carries a sharp internal contradiction. Over the last decade, the 90-day window delivers a 21.76% projected gain with a 60% win rate, suggesting meaningful upside toward $3.89. But midterm election years tell a starkly different story: all three time horizons turn negative, with the 90-day win rate collapsing to just 12.5% and an average return of negative 8.82%, implying a target near $2.89.
Natural Gas is notoriously volatile seasonally, driven by storage cycles and weather demand. The midterm year pattern consistently underperforms the broader trend, suggesting political-cycle dynamics amplify downside pressure. With current price at $3.157, the critical question is whether the broader seasonal tailwind or the midterm headwind dominates. Watch the 30-day window first.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Natural Gas may be headed.
Projection as of Jun 03, 2026 from closing price $3.1570
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Natural Gas reflects how the commodity has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The 60-day consecutive win rate of 40.0% means Natural Gas closed higher than its starting price in 40.0% of those historical instances, while the midterm election year win rate drops further to 25.0%, indicating even less frequent positive outcomes in that subset.
When the two bases diverge, as they do here, the patterns are telling different stories. The consecutive base projects a return of +2.4% while the midterm election year base projects -13.7%, suggesting the political cycle may introduce conditions that differ from recent history alone. Median returns, such as -4.9% and -8.6% respectively, often provide a cleaner picture than averages because they are less distorted by extreme outlier years like the historical best of +28.7% and worst of -25.9%.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for sudden supply disruptions, geopolitical developments, regulatory changes, or unexpected shifts in demand. A win rate, even a high one, carries no guarantee about any individual year's outcome. These projections describe statistical tendencies, not predictions.
Market participants typically use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental supply and demand analysis, technical chart patterns, and disciplined risk management frameworks. It can help inform expectations about historical tendencies during a given period without dictating any specific course of action.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Natural Gas has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 4 of 10 times with an average return of -0.6%.
Midterm Election Years (8 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 8 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 2 times with an average return of -5.1%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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