Natural Gas
Henry Hub Natural Gas futures represent the benchmark price for natural gas in North America, heavily influenced by weather patterns and seasonal demand.
Seasonal history sends a split signal on Natural Gas right now. The last 10 consecutive years show a powerful 60-day setup, with a 90% win rate and a projected gain of nearly 26% to $3.52. But midterm election years tell a different story: the 30-day win rate collapses to just 37.5%, with an average loss of 2.38% and a target of $2.61.
Natural Gas is notoriously sensitive to political-cycle dynamics, and midterm years historically suppress near-term momentum before conditions improve. The 90-day midterm win rate recovers to 62.5%, suggesting patience matters here. Traders should watch the $2.61 support level closely over the next month before leaning into the longer-term bullish seasonal case.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Natural Gas may be headed.
Projection as of Aug 14, 2026 from closing price $2.7480
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data reflects how Natural Gas has behaved during this specific calendar window across historical years. The consecutive pattern shows a 90.0% win rate, meaning Natural Gas closed higher in 9 out of 10 comparable periods. The midterm election year pattern shows a 50.0% win rate, indicating a more mixed historical record during those specific cycles.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more weight than either pattern alone. Convergence suggests the tendency is not isolated to one subset of history. The median return is often more informative than the average because it is less distorted by outlier years at either extreme.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for breaking news, supply disruptions, policy shifts, or geopolitical events that fall outside historical norms. A 90.0% win rate still reflects a loss in roughly 1 out of 10 years, and past tendencies carry no guarantee for any single future period. These projections represent statistical tendencies, not forecasts.
Seasonal data functions as one analytical lens among many. Market participants often use it alongside fundamental supply and demand analysis, technical indicators, and their own risk frameworks to better understand historical context and set informed expectations about timing and magnitude.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Natural Gas has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 9 of 10 times with an average return of +17.7%.
Midterm Election Years (8 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 8 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 4 times with an average return of +1.6%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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