Natural Gas
Henry Hub Natural Gas futures represent the benchmark price for natural gas in North America, heavily influenced by weather patterns and seasonal demand.
The near-term setup for Natural Gas carries a notable split personality. The 30-day midterm election year pattern flashes genuine strength, projecting a 6.55% gain to $3.23 with a 75% win rate across 8 historical instances. But that optimism evaporates quickly: the 60-day and 90-day midterm windows collapse to 25% win rates with projected losses of 13% and 20%, respectively.
Natural Gas is notoriously volatile heading into summer, and midterm years amplify the whipsaw tendency. The commodity's recent 7.56% surge may already be front-running the seasonal tailwind, leaving less upside in the 30-day window than the averages suggest. Traders should watch whether $3.03 holds as support, because the 60 and 90-day data converge sharply toward the downside.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Natural Gas may be headed.
Projection as of Oct 29, 2026 from closing price $3.0300
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for Natural Gas reflects how the commodity has historically performed during this specific calendar window. The 60-day consecutive win rate of 30.0% means Natural Gas closed higher than its starting price in only 30.0% of comparable historical periods, while the midterm election year win rate of 25.0% tells a similar story across that narrower subset of years.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, that convergence can add weight to the observed pattern. The median return, here more negative than the average, is often a cleaner measure because it is less distorted by outlier years like the best recorded gain of 37.7% or worst loss of 33.8%.
Seasonal patterns are built entirely from historical calendar behavior and cannot account for supply disruptions, geopolitical developments, regulatory shifts, or sudden changes in demand. A low win rate does not guarantee a decline in any given year, and the projected returns are statistical tendencies drawn from a limited sample.
Market participants often treat seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental supply and demand analysis, technical price levels, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Understanding historical tendencies can help frame expectations and inform timing awareness without substituting for a complete analytical picture.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Natural Gas has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 3 of 10 times with an average return of -6.7%.
Midterm Election Years (8 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 8 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 2 times with an average return of -9.7%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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