Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks 30 prominent blue-chip companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. It is one of the oldest and most-watched indices in the world.
The near-term seasonal setup for the Dow presents a notable split. The last 10 years show a 70% win rate over the next 30 days with a projected target of 53,288, but midterm election years tell a different story, pointing to 51,082 with a negative 1.37% return. That tension is the headline.
Midterm years consistently underperform the broader 10-year trend across all three time horizons, with 90-day win rates dropping to just 44.4% and average returns near zero. The 60-day window is the weakest link, showing negative average returns in both datasets. Traders should watch whether the index holds current levels through the 30-day window before committing to the more optimistic longer-term projection of 63,367.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest Dow Jones Industrial Average may be headed.
Projection as of Jul 27, 2026 from closing price $51,947.25
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across past years. The consecutive 60-day win rate of 50.0% means the index finished higher half the time, while the midterm election year win rate of 55.6% means the index gained in roughly 5 out of 9 comparable election-cycle years.
When the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in opposite directions, as they do here, it signals that the election cycle may be introducing conditions that differ from recent patterns alone. The median return is often more reliable than the average in these cases, since a single extreme year can pull the average significantly away from typical outcomes.
Seasonal patterns are historical tendencies only and cannot account for breaking news, Federal Reserve decisions, earnings surprises, or geopolitical developments. Even a win rate above 50% offers no guarantee that any specific year will follow the historical majority, and the worst recorded outcome of negative 9.1% illustrates the range of real possibilities.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis and technical indicators. It can help frame expectations about historical tendencies during a given period, but it does not replace a broader analytical process or account for individual financial circumstances.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how Dow Jones Industrial Average has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of -0.2%.
Midterm Election Years (18 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 18 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 10 times with an average return of -1.4%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
Latest News
Recent headlines related to Dow Jones Industrial Average, sourced from major financial news outlets with AI sentiment analysis.
- Kospi index and U.S. stock futures jump as new Hormuz talks send oil prices plunging amid Iran war pause while Wall Street awaits Fed meeting
- Dow Jones Futures Rise, Oil Prices Dive Amid Iran News; Apple Leads Earnings Wave, Fed Meeting Ahead
- Dow Jones Futures Due, Iran News In focus; Apple Leads Earnings Wave, Fed Meeting Ahead
- Dow Jones Futures: U.S., Iran Halt Attacks; Apple Leads Earnings Wave, Fed Meeting Ahead
- 4 Big Tech earnings reports, a Fed meeting, and $100 oil: It's the busiest week of the quarter
- Top 3 US Stock Market Stories From This Week
- The Clock Is Ticking on Wall Street's $1.5 Trillion Powder Keg, and History Says Time Is Almost Up
- Dow Jones Futures: Market Triggers Sell Signal; Apple Earnings, Iran News, Fed Meeting In Focus
- An Inflation Double Whammy Awaits Wall Street, Making a Stock Market Crash Likelier Under President Donald Trump
- Review & Preview: An Earnings Week to Forget
Explore More
Other markets with seasonal analysis and recent pattern articles.