CBOE Volatility Index
The VIX measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, derived from S&P 500 index options. Often called the 'fear gauge,' it rises during periods of market uncertainty.
The most striking signal emerges at the 90-day horizon, where midterm election year history shows VIX rising in 5 of 8 periods, pointing toward 19.15, a 20.59% increase that would signal meaningful equity market stress ahead. The near-term picture is murkier: over 30 days, VIX rose in just 5 of 10 consecutive years, suggesting near-term stability may persist.
The midterm election cycle consistently amplifies VIX behavior relative to the broader 10-year trend. While the 90-day general average shows only a negligible 0.10% increase, midterm years average 11.31% higher, reflecting the uncertainty that election-year policy debates inject into markets. Investors should treat any sustained move above 17 as an early warning that the midterm anxiety cycle is activating.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest CBOE Volatility Index may be headed.
Projection as of Jun 03, 2026 from closing price $15.77
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projections for the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) reveal how this fear gauge has historically behaved during this same calendar window. Over the past 60-day consecutive periods, VIX increased in 40.0% of cases, and in midterm election years specifically, it increased in 37.5% of periods. Both rates suggest VIX has more often declined during this stretch than risen, historically signaling relative market calm.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more weight than either pattern alone. Here, both project negative returns, with consecutive at -4.1% and PE-based at -2.8%. The median return is often more informative than the average because extreme outliers, like the historical high of +78.4%, can distort averages significantly.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for sudden geopolitical developments, Federal Reserve announcements, earnings surprises, or other market-moving events. A historically low VIX-increase rate does not guarantee stability in any given year, and the projection reflects statistical tendency rather than prediction.
Market participants can use seasonal VIX data as one diagnostic layer alongside technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, and portfolio risk assessments. It offers context about historically typical conditions during this period, helping inform expectations rather than drive decisions.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how CBOE Volatility Index has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 4 of 10 times with an average return of +7.6%.
Midterm Election Years (8 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 8 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 3 times with an average return of +7.9%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
Latest News
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