CBOE Volatility Index
The VIX measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, derived from S&P 500 index options. Often called the 'fear gauge,' it rises during periods of market uncertainty.
Near-term seasonal signals for the VIX point toward rising anxiety. Over the next 30 days, midterm election year history shows the VIX increased in 5 of 8 periods, with an average gain of 10.22%, suggesting a move toward 16.59. The broader 10-year pattern agrees, with the VIX rising in 6 of 10 comparable periods. That short-term alignment is notable.
Beyond 30 days, the picture flips sharply. In midterm years, the VIX declined in 6 of 8 sixty-day periods and 6 of 8 ninety-day periods, signaling that any near-term volatility spike may give way to calmer, equity-friendly conditions by summer. Investors should watch whether the initial stress materializes, as midterm years historically resolve toward stability after early turbulence.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest CBOE Volatility Index may be headed.
Projection as of Sep 04, 2026 from closing price $14.32
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the CBOE Volatility Index reveals how VIX has historically behaved during this same calendar period across past years. In consecutive periods, VIX increased in 60.0% of historical instances, signaling a tendency toward elevated market anxiety. During midterm election years specifically, that figure drops to 37.5%, suggesting relatively calmer conditions in those cycles.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more weight than either pattern alone. Here, both bases agree, reinforcing the directional tendency. The median return is often more informative than the average because extreme years, like the historical peak of plus 83.7%, can distort averages significantly.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and cannot account for breaking news, policy shifts, earnings surprises, or geopolitical shocks. A 60.0% historical increase rate does not guarantee VIX will rise in any given year. These projections represent statistical tendencies, not forecasts.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside technical indicators, macroeconomic analysis, and risk frameworks. A projected VIX increase may inform expectations about potential equity market turbulence during the period. Seasonal data is most useful as a background reference, not a standalone signal.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how CBOE Volatility Index has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 6 of 10 times with an average return of +10.3%.
Midterm Election Years (8 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 8 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 3 times with an average return of +2.0%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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