CBOE Volatility Index
The VIX measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, derived from S&P 500 index options. Often called the 'fear gauge,' it rises during periods of market uncertainty.
Seasonal history sends a clear signal: fear is likely fading. Over the last 10 years, the VIX has risen in just 1 of 10 comparable 30-day periods, with an average decline of 14.24% pointing toward a level near 14.48. The 60-day window shows similar calm, with the index rising in only 3 of 10 periods.
Midterm election years reinforce this stability story. The 90-day midterm pattern shows the VIX declining toward 14.52 on average, rising in only 4 of 8 historical instances. Both lenses agree: declining volatility ahead suggests improving equity market conditions and reduced investor anxiety. Watch whether the VIX breaks decisively below 15, which would confirm the seasonal compression thesis is playing out.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest CBOE Volatility Index may be headed.
Projection as of Oct 29, 2026 from closing price $16.91
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projections for the CBOE Volatility Index show how VIX has historically behaved during this same calendar period across past years. The consecutive 60-day win rate of 30.0% means VIX increased in only 30.0% of those historical periods, suggesting this window has more often corresponded with calmer equity market conditions. In midterm election years specifically, VIX increased in just 12.5% of comparable periods.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more weight than either pattern alone. The median return of -12.2% is often more informative than the average of -11.2%, since medians are less distorted by extreme outlier years like the worst recorded period of -42.3%.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for breaking news, sudden policy shifts, earnings surprises, or geopolitical shocks. A low historical VIX increase rate does not guarantee volatility will remain subdued in any given year. These projections reflect statistical tendencies across past periods, not predictions of what will occur.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis, technical signals, and broader risk frameworks. Understanding historical VIX behavior during specific calendar windows can help set expectations about potential equity market turbulence, informing how participants interpret other incoming data.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how CBOE Volatility Index has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 3 of 10 times with an average return of -11.2%.
Midterm Election Years (8 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 8 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 1 times with an average return of -7.5%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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