S&P 500
The S&P 500 index tracks 500 of the largest U.S. publicly traded companies, weighted by market capitalization. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of the U.S. equity market.
The most compelling signal here is the 90-day window, where both lenses align convincingly. The last 10 consecutive years show a 90% win rate with a projected 17.76% gain to 9,123. Midterm election years reinforce this, delivering a 75% win rate and a 15.19% projected return to 8,924 over the same horizon. Near-term, however, the picture is murkier: the 30-day window carries only a 45.8% win rate in midterm years, with an average return of negative 0.98%.
The S&P 500's midterm year pattern historically features early-period turbulence before resolving higher. The divergence between weak 30-day odds and strong 90-day outcomes suggests patience is rewarded. Watch whether the index holds current levels through the near-term chop before the seasonal tailwind strengthens.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest S&P 500 may be headed.
Projection as of Sep 04, 2026 from closing price $7,747.71
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data shows how the S&P 500 has historically performed during this exact calendar period across comparable years. The 60-day consecutive win rate of 50.0% rises to 58.3% when filtered to midterm election years, meaning the index closed higher after 60 days in roughly 7 of every 12 such periods historically.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more consistency than when they diverge. The median return of +1.7% is often more informative than the average of +2.2% because it is less distorted by outlier years at either extreme.
Seasonal patterns cannot account for breaking news, policy shifts, earnings surprises, or geopolitical developments that fall outside historical norms. A 58.3% win rate still reflects a meaningful number of losing periods, and the historical range of +5.4% to -5.5% illustrates how wide outcomes can be. These projections describe statistical tendencies, not forecasts.
Market participants who use seasonal data typically treat it as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and broader risk frameworks. It can inform how participants interpret timing and set expectations, but historical tendencies alone do not determine outcomes in any individual year.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how S&P 500 has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of +0.2%.
Midterm Election Years (24 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 24 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 14 times with an average return of +2.2%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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