NASDAQ Composite
The NASDAQ Composite index includes over 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
The seasonal picture for 2026 splits sharply depending on which lens you apply. Recent 10-year history projects a 60-day gain of 19.06% with a 90% win rate, pointing toward 32,090. But midterm election years tell a starkly different story: that same 60-day window carries only a 38.5% win rate and an average loss of 3.26%, targeting 25,667.
That divergence is the key tension to watch. NASDAQ's growth-heavy composition makes it particularly sensitive to the policy uncertainty and liquidity tightening that historically accompanies midterm cycles. The 90-day midterm projection deepens to a 14.10% decline with a worst-case drawdown near 25%. Investors should treat the bullish recent-history signal with caution until the midterm headwind either materializes or fails to appear.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest NASDAQ Composite may be headed.
Projection as of Jun 03, 2026 from closing price $27,093.90
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the NASDAQ Composite illustrates how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The consecutive pattern carries a 90.0% win rate, meaning the index closed higher 60 days later in 90.0% of comparable historical instances. The midterm election year pattern tells a notably different story, with a win rate of just 38.5%.
When two bases diverge and point in opposite directions, it signals that the election cycle has historically produced conditions distinct from the broader consecutive trend. The midterm election year base shows an average return of -3.3% against the consecutive average of +5.4%. Median returns, which are less distorted by outlier years, offer a useful cross-check: +4.8% consecutive versus -2.4% for midterm years.
Seasonal patterns are built entirely from historical data and cannot anticipate earnings surprises, policy shifts, geopolitical developments, or macroeconomic shocks. A 90.0% win rate does not guarantee a positive outcome in any individual year. These figures represent statistical tendencies, not predictions.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis, technical signals, and broader economic conditions. Understanding historical tendencies can help frame expectations and inform how other data points are interpreted, without substituting for a complete analytical process.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how NASDAQ Composite has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 trading days, this pattern has been positive 9 of 10 times with an average return of +5.4%.
Midterm Election Years (13 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 13 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 5 times with an average return of -3.3%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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