NASDAQ Composite
The NASDAQ Composite index includes over 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
The 90-day seasonal window is where NASDAQ Composite's bull case lives. The last ten years show an 80% win rate over that horizon, with a projected return of 13.59% pointing toward 29,626. Midterm election years confirm the direction, targeting 29,086 with an 11.52% projected gain, though the win rate drops to a less convincing 54%. The near-term picture is rougher: midterm 30-day history shows a 46% win rate and an average return of negative 2.82%.
NASDAQ's growth-heavy composition amplifies seasonal swings, making the near-term weakness worth respecting. Midterm years historically front-load the pain before delivering stronger recoveries by the 60-day mark, where the win rate jumps to 69%. Watch the 27,587 level as the first meaningful recovery checkpoint.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest NASDAQ Composite may be headed.
Projection as of Sep 11, 2026 from closing price $26,081.72
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the NASDAQ Composite reflects how the index has historically performed during this same calendar window across prior years. The 60-day consecutive win rate of 60.0% means the index finished higher in 60 out of every 100 comparable periods, while the midterm election year win rate of 69.2% indicates an even stronger historical tendency during years matching the current political cycle.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more weight than either pattern alone. Convergence suggests the tendency is consistent across different analytical lenses. The median return is often more informative than the average because it is less distorted by extreme outliers in either direction.
Seasonal patterns have no mechanism to account for unexpected events such as earnings surprises, policy shifts, geopolitical developments, or breaking economic news. A 69.2% win rate still implies the index declined in roughly 3 out of 10 comparable periods. Historical tendencies describe probability distributions, not predetermined outcomes.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer within a broader analytical framework, alongside fundamental research, technical analysis, and portfolio risk parameters. Knowing the historical tendency for a given period can help calibrate expectations and provide context, but it does not replace comprehensive analysis tailored to current conditions.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how NASDAQ Composite has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 6 of 10 times with an average return of +1.6%.
Midterm Election Years (13 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 13 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 9 times with an average return of +2.8%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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