NASDAQ Composite
The NASDAQ Composite index includes over 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
The near-term seasonal setup for the NASDAQ carries a notable split signal. The last 10 years show an 80% win rate over 30 days, yet the projected return sits at -3.31%, reflecting how a single brutal outlier (-11.38%) skews the average below the strong 1.85% median. Midterm election years tell a harsher story: only a 38.5% win rate at 60 days with an average loss of 2.07%.
What makes this tension meaningful is the NASDAQ's amplified sensitivity to rate expectations and growth sentiment, which midterm uncertainty historically punishes. The 90-day window offers the most constructive read across both lenses, targeting 9.12% gains in the consecutive dataset. Watch whether the index holds current levels through the 60-day window before committing to the longer-term recovery thesis.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest NASDAQ Composite may be headed.
Projection as of Aug 14, 2026 from closing price $26,803.03
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the NASDAQ Composite reflects how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The consecutive pattern shows a 50.0% win rate, meaning the index finished higher in exactly half of those historical instances. The midterm election year pattern tells a notably different story, with a win rate of just 38.5%.
When the two bases point in opposite directions, as they do here, it signals that the election cycle may be introducing conditions that diverge from recent historical norms. The median return is often more informative than the average in these cases, since extreme years like the worst recorded drop of 18.9% can pull averages away from what most years actually looked like.
Seasonal patterns are built entirely from historical data and cannot anticipate earnings surprises, policy shifts, geopolitical developments, or breaking macroeconomic news. Even a pattern with a strong win rate carries no guarantee for any individual year. These projections represent statistical tendencies across a sample of past periods, not predictions about what will happen.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental research, technical analysis, and broader risk frameworks. It can help calibrate expectations about historical tendencies during a given period without substituting for a complete analytical picture.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how NASDAQ Composite has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 5 of 10 times with an average return of -0.2%.
Midterm Election Years (13 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 13 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 5 times with an average return of -2.1%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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