NASDAQ Composite
The NASDAQ Composite index includes over 3,000 stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted toward technology and growth companies.
The most striking signal here is the 90-day midterm election year pattern, which shows a 92.3% win rate and a projected return of 31.75%, targeting 34,979. That dwarfs the broader 10-year 90-day average of 17.53%, and the near-term 30-day window reinforces the setup with a 90% win rate and a 9.90% projected gain to 29,178. Both lenses agree: seasonal tailwinds are unusually strong right now.
What makes this compelling is the convergence. Midterm years historically produce NASDAQ's most powerful second-half recoveries as policy uncertainty clears. The 90-day midterm win rate of 92.3% versus 80% for the broader 10-year sample is a meaningful edge. Watch whether price confirms by clearing 28,819 within 30 days, validating the seasonal setup.
Seasonal Price Projections
Select a historical basis and projection horizon to see where seasonal patterns suggest NASDAQ Composite may be headed.
Projection as of Oct 29, 2026 from closing price $26,549.85
How to Use This Data
Seasonal projection data for the NASDAQ Composite reflects how the index has historically performed during this same calendar period across prior years. The 70.0% consecutive win rate means the index finished higher in 70 out of roughly 100 comparable historical windows, while the midterm election year pattern shows a 61.5% win rate across that narrower subset of years.
When both the consecutive and midterm election year bases point in the same direction, the signal carries more consistency than when only one basis is present. Median returns of plus 3.0% to plus 3.9% are often more informative than averages because they are less distorted by outlier years like the best recorded gain of plus 18.0% or the worst of negative 7.0%.
Seasonal patterns are built entirely from historical behavior and cannot account for unexpected events such as earnings surprises, policy shifts, geopolitical developments, or sudden changes in market sentiment. A 70.0% win rate still means the index declined in roughly 30% of those historical periods, and no statistical tendency guarantees any specific outcome.
Market participants often use seasonal data as one layer of context alongside fundamental analysis and technical indicators. It can help frame expectations about historical tendencies during a given period, but it functions as background information rather than a standalone basis for any decision.
This information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Seasonal patterns are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. All investment decisions carry risk. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Understanding Seasonal Projections
Seasonal projections estimate future price movement based on how NASDAQ Composite has historically performed during the same calendar period. These are statistical baselines derived from decades of market data, not predictions.
Consecutive Years (Last 10)
Uses the most recent 10 years of data regardless of market regime. This captures the broadest recent behavior, including all economic and political environments. Over the next 60 calendar days, this pattern has been positive 7 of 10 times with an average return of +4.0%.
Midterm Election Years (13 Available)
Uses only years that fall in the same position within the 4-year U.S. presidential election cycle. 2026 is a midterm election year. Markets often exhibit distinct patterns tied to fiscal and monetary policy shifts within this cycle. In 13 historical midterm election years, this 60-day window was positive 8 times with an average return of +3.0%.
Seasonal patterns reflect historical tendencies and do not guarantee future results. All projections are based on past performance and should be used as one input among many in your investment decision-making process. Data provided by TradeWave.ai.
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