CNH Industrial (CNH) Has Dropped in Every Midterm Spring Window Across 80 Trading Days

Key takeaways

Seasonal window

CNH Industrial has fallen in all 7 of the last midterm-election-year windows that start around Apr 23 and run for 80 trading days, with shorts averaging 19.87% gains over the period. That next window begins on Apr 23, 2026, with the stock currently at $10.74, about 24.7% below its 52-week high of $14.27 and still close to its $9.00 low for the year. The combination of a clean 7-for-7 record for the short side and a stock already trading near the bottom of its range makes this slice of the calendar unusually important for anyone exposed to CNH.

Grouping by the presidential election cycle matters here because CNH sells big-ticket capital goods that are sensitive to policy, credit conditions and farm income, all of which tend to shift in recognizable ways around midterm years. In this framework, the current calendar year is the midterm election year, and the upcoming window sits in the early part of that phase, just before markets historically pivot toward the more supportive pre-election year environment.

Across the last seven midterm-election-year iterations, every single one finished with CNH lower over this 80-day stretch, which is why the trade direction is classified as short. The average winner for the short side came in at 19.87%, with a median profit of 18.9%, and the cumulative return across all seven windows totals 254% for the strategy. The Sharpe ratio of 4.61 points to unusually strong risk-adjusted results based on end-of-window outcomes, while a TradeWave Ratio of 4.28 signals that price has typically traveled meaningfully in the trade direction inside the window, not just at the close.

The historical seasonal average suggests that much of the downside for CNH in this window has tended to build gradually rather than in a single air pocket. In several years, the stock drifted lower through the middle of the window before stabilizing toward the end, which fits with a macro backdrop where policy uncertainty and slower demand weigh on capital goods before visibility improves into the pre-election year.

Year-by-year bars that combine net results with peak favorable and adverse moves show how often CNH has swung sharply before settling lower.

Looking at individual years, the strongest short-side outcome came in 1998, when CNH fell 26.65% over the window, with the worst intraperiod drawdown against the trade reaching 28.36% before the move played out. In 2002, the stock dropped 21.13% over the period, but at one point rallied 18.31% against the short before rolling over, a reminder that maximum favorable move and maximum adverse move can both be large in the same window. Even the milder years, such as 2006 with a 14.81% decline, still featured double-digit adverse excursions, which underlines how choppy the path has been even when the final result favored the short side.

History does not guarantee future results; adverse excursions can be large even in winning windows, and this pattern has often involved sharp countertrend rallies before the downside reasserted itself.

Price and near-term drivers

CNH Industrial closed Tuesday at $10.74, up 2.8% on the day, with roughly 27.6 million shares changing hands against a 20-day average volume of about 13.8 million. The stock sits about 24.7% below its 52-week high of $14.27 and only 19.3% above its 52-week low of $9.00, underscoring how much ground it has already given up over the past year.

That weakness has tracked a tougher fundamental backdrop. In 2025, CNH guided to full-year earnings of $0.50 to $0.70 per share and warned that net sales could fall as much as 19% as global retail demand for agriculture and construction equipment cooled.^[4][7] Agriculture accounts for the bulk of CNH’s revenue, and both that segment and construction have been hit by a cyclical downturn and surplus inventory, prompting production cuts and cost controls.^[4][6]

On Feb 17, 2026, CNH released earnings guidance for the current year, signaling to investors that management still sees a challenging environment ahead, even if the exact numbers were not detailed in public summaries.^[9] Earlier in the cycle, CNH had already flagged lower 2025 sales and production, and commentary around the slowdown in farm and construction markets has framed the stock as a classic late-cycle industrial name working through a reset rather than a growth story.^[4][7]

Past trading around these headlines has been heavy. In Nov 2025, CNH set a new one-year low after weak earnings, with shares trading down to $9.00 and volume spiking to more than 4 million shares on the day.^[1] In Sep 2025, insider Francesco Vincenzo Mari Tutino sold 12,271 shares for about $153,756, cutting his position by 45.10%, a move that added to the perception of pressure on the name at the time.^[2]

The chart below situates the latest move in its recent multi-month context, alongside a 60-day seasonal projection for the upcoming window.

From a technical perspective, CNH is trading below its 50-day simple moving average of $11.45, with a one-month return of -15.76%, which shows how quickly sentiment has soured into the spring. Average 20-day volume of about 13.8 million shares suggests liquidity is ample, so if the historical midterm-year pattern reasserts itself, the move is unlikely to be constrained by trading capacity.

What to watch as the window opens

The next key date on the calendar is Apr 23, when the 80-day midterm-election-year window formally begins. For traders and investors, the first thing to watch is how CNH behaves around that start date relative to its 50-day moving average and the $9.00 52-week low. A decisive break below that low early in the window would line up with the historical pattern of sustained downside, while a firm hold or bounce could signal that this cycle is diverging from the script.

Macro and policy catalysts will matter as well. Any updates on farm incomes, construction spending or credit conditions for equipment buyers could either reinforce or blunt the cyclical slowdown that CNH has been guiding toward.^[4][6][7][9] Because this is the midterm election year, investors will also be parsing fiscal and regulatory signals that affect infrastructure and agricultural subsidies, both of which can shift demand for CNH’s machinery.

Inside the window, watch intraday and weekly volatility as much as closing prices. Prior midterm-year cycles have seen CNH rally sharply against the short before rolling over, with some years posting adverse moves of more than 20% against the trade before finishing lower. If this pattern repeats, traders could see fast squeezes even in a window that ultimately favors the downside.

Finally, keep an eye on volume and insider or institutional activity around earnings and guidance updates. In Nov 2025, a weak earnings print and heavy volume coincided with a fresh 52-week low, while insider selling in Sep 2025 added to the negative tone.^[1][2][3] If similar selling pressure or large-volume days cluster inside this year’s window, it would echo the historical pattern of midterm-year stress for CNH. If, instead, buyers absorb bad news and the stock holds above key support, that would be the clearest sign yet that this midterm-year stretch is breaking from its 7-for-7 history.