Analyst ‘Moderate Buy’ View on Copart (CPRT) Aligns With a Historically Bullish Oct-Nov Run

What is the seasonal pattern for Copart (CPRT)?

Copart has risen in 7 of 7 midterm-year fall windows from Oct 19 to Nov 28, with an average gain of 9.92% in winning years.

How has Copart (CPRT) traded in the late-October midterm-year window?

Copart has risen in 7 of 7 midterm election years during the Oct 19 to Nov 28 window, averaging 9.92% gains and compounding to a 92.62% cumulative return across those cycles. Shares finished the prior session at 29.28, leaving the stock about 37.7% below its 52-week high of 47.00 and down 23.5% year to date as investors digest a weaker tape and a recent earnings miss.^[4] That mix of a historically strong CPRT seasonal trend and a bruised chart gives this year’s window more weight than usual for traders trying to time a potential turn.

Because this pattern is grouped by the presidential election cycle, it only looks at the last 7 midterm election years rather than every calendar year. That matters in 2026, since markets are wrapping up a midterm election year and heading into the year before the presidential election, a phase that has often seen a friendlier policy and liquidity backdrop for equities.

Historically, the trade direction for this Copart trading window has been long, and every single iteration has finished in the green. The strongest year in the sample was 2022, when CPRT gained 17.28% between Oct 19 and Nov 28, with a best intraperiod run-up of 19.62% and a worst drawdown of 3.1% from the entry level. The softest outcome was 2006, which still delivered a 3.23% net gain, with a maximum favorable move of 5.07% and a modest 2.33% adverse excursion.

The average winner gain of 9.92% lines up closely with the median profit of 10.0%, which suggests the distribution of outcomes has been fairly tight rather than dominated by a single outlier year. The annualized return of 9.82% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.87 indicate that, on a risk-adjusted basis, this 41-day slice has stacked up well against typical buy-and-hold exposure in the stock. Add it up across the seven midterm cycles and the cumulative return from repeatedly holding only this window comes to 92.62%.

The MFE/MAE profile shows that upside has usually come with manageable but real downside swings. In 2002 and 2018, for example, Copart still finished the window higher by 10.0% and 4.99% respectively, yet the worst intraperiod drawdowns reached 7.37% and 6.09% before the stock recovered. That mix of solid maximum favorable moves and occasional deeper adverse excursions is consistent with a TradeWave Ratio of 1.84, which signals that price has typically traveled a meaningful distance in the trade direction inside the window.

A second view of yearly ranges shows how far Copart has typically swung inside this window before settling at its final result.

The stacked net, maximum favorable move and maximum adverse move bars underline the same message: every year has finished positive, but several have seen 5% to 7% drawdowns along the way even as the best intraperiod rallies pushed into the mid-teens. The pattern is clear for this Copart seasonal outlook in midterm years: the window has favored longs, but it has not been a straight line.

History does not guarantee future results; adverse excursions can be large even in winning windows, and traders should treat this pattern as context rather than a forecast.

Why does Copart (CPRT) follow this seasonal pattern?

One likely driver is the way Copart’s fiscal calendar and the broader industrials sector line up with the policy and earnings backdrop late in midterm election years. Analysts have pointed to portfolio repositioning into quality compounders as investors look ahead to the year before the presidential election, when risk appetite has often improved.^[3] This pattern may also reflect sector rotation into economically sensitive names after midyear volatility, with Copart’s salvage and auction business benefiting from steady demand regardless of the political noise.

What is driving Copart (CPRT) today?

Copart closed at 29.28 in the prior session, down 1.3% on the day and roughly 9.2% above its 52-week low of 26.81 as the stock continues to lag after a tough year.^[4] The shares are off 23.5% year to date, a sharp reset for a name that many long-term holders still view as a “wide-moat compounder,” and the one-month return of −14.71% shows how quickly sentiment has cooled.^[4][13]

The latest fundamental jolt came on Sep 10, when Copart’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings missed consensus EPS even as revenue edged past expectations, a combination that left investors debating margin pressure and growth durability.^[4] That followed a modest beat in the fiscal third quarter reported in May, where revenue and diluted EPS both came in slightly ahead of estimates but failed to spark lasting upside in the stock.^[6] Analysts still lean constructive, with MarketBeat’s aggregated data showing a “Moderate Buy” rating and a consensus price target of 37.57, implying upside from current levels if the company can reassert its growth story.^[1][3]

Positioning around the name has become more active. On Aug 21, MarketBeat flagged unusually high options volume in Copart, with traders buying 6,913 call options in a single session, more than double typical call activity.^[8] Short interest has also crept higher, reaching 45.10 million shares, or 5.39% of the public float, as of mid-August, with days-to-cover at 4.8 based on average volume of 10.37 million shares.^[9] At the same time, insider trading reports show multiple sales by CEO Jeffrey Liaw and other executives alongside some smaller buys and sells from directors, a mixed but closely watched signal for a stock that has historically traded at a premium.^[11]

Institutional flows have been supportive in pockets. VanEck Associates disclosed a purchase of more than 4.4 million Copart shares in late August, underscoring that some large investors are willing to lean into the weakness.^[7] Sector-wide, Copart still screens better than many industrials peers, with analysts rating the stock more favorably than the broader sector’s average “Hold” stance, which helps explain why the name continues to attract both dip buyers and short sellers at the same time.^[3]

The chart below situates the latest move in its recent multi-month context and overlays the historical seasonal path into the upcoming window.

What should traders watch as the Oct 19 window approaches?

First, the calendar. The 41-day Copart trading window tied to the midterm election year begins on Oct 19 and runs through Nov 28, so any shift in trend as that date approaches will be viewed against a backdrop of seven straight historical wins for longs. Traders will be watching whether CPRT can stabilize above the 52-week low and reclaim its 50-day moving average near 30.42, levels that would signal the stock is starting the window from a position of relative strength rather than distress.^[4]

Second, the options tape. The August spike in call buying showed that speculative interest can build quickly in Copart, and a renewed surge in call volume or skew as the window opens would suggest traders are leaning into the historical seasonality rather than fading it.^[8] If, instead, short interest continues to climb and options activity tilts toward downside protection, that would mark a clear divergence from the bullish CPRT seasonal trend and could set up a more volatile path through the window.^[9]

Finally, the policy and macro calendar into year-end will matter for this election-cycle pattern. As markets transition from the midterm election year into the year before the presidential election, investors typically reassess regulatory risk, infrastructure spending and broader industrial demand, all of which feed directly into Copart’s salvage and auction volumes. The historical record says this specific late-October window has been a sweet spot for the stock, but how CPRT behaves inside it this time will tell traders whether that pattern is still in force or starting to fade.